20231103-五矿期货-锰硅月报_铁水降幅有限降低负反馈预期_宏观及冬季补库逻辑提前交易驱动情绪偏强_56页_2mb

Manganese Silicon (锰硅):
Prices declined in October 2023, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton (62% of historical low) and profits falling significantly in key regions like Inner Mongolia (-177 yuan/ton), Ningxia (-275 yuan/ton), and Guangxi (-187 yuan/ton), pointing to weak fundamentals. High inventory at 2,133,000 tons and muted demand, with iron water remaining elevated at 24.27 million tons/week, contributed to downward pressure. Short-term rebound is expected due to winter stocking anticipation and macroeconomic factors like increased government spending, but risks persist from supply-demand imbalances and low profitability.

Ferrosilicon (硅铁):
Similar price declines occurred, with a basis of 164 yuan/ton and sharp profit reductions in regions such as Inner Mongolia (-117 yuan/ton), Ningxia (-357 yuan/ton), and Qinghai. High inventory (1,196,000 tons) and weak demand from iron and magnesium sectors (10-month cumulative output -42.23% YoY) highlight challenges. The outlook includes potential short-term support from government stimulus and winter stocking, but fundamental issues like low margins and import competition could limit gains.

Overall Market Trend: Iron and steel demand weakened after the holidays, with no strong absorption of prices. Macroeconomic recovery themes and anticipat
ed winter inventory buildup provided some positive momentum, leading to short-term rebounds in black metals, but iron alloy fundamentals remain constrained by excess supply and high inventories, posing risks to sustained price strength.