2021加密货币市场展望分析报告（英）_89页_6mb

2021 Outlook Going Mainstream Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the 2021 outlook for the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing its growth trajectory, technological evolution, and macroeconomic drivers. It presents a bullish case for crypto, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, while acknowledging the risks associated with the asset class.

Main Points

• Crypto Performance:

  • Crypto has been the best-performing asset for 9 out of the last 11 years.
  • In 2021, it's on pace to be the best performing for 10 of 12 years.
  • Bitcoin reached the $40k price target in 2021, with a revised target of $100k.
  • Ethereum's implied value based on cloud PSG multiples is $10,481, indicating a potential 650% increase.

• Market Growth:

  • The global crypto market cap broke all-time highs, surpassing $1 trillion in 2021.
  • Crypto payment transaction volume reached $3.4T in 2020, growing at a 135% 5-year CAGR.
  • Crypto payment volume is on track to reach $13.2T in FY-21, which could represent 5% of global payments, or half of card network volume.

• Crypto Economy:

  • The crypto economy is viewed as a digital emerging market, with a market cap of $1T, ranking as the 16th largest globally.
  • Crypto is compared to the internet's growth trajectory, with user adoption similar to the late 1990s.
  • The payment volume could imply a total crypto economy value of $5T, suggesting substantial economic activity.

• Technological Evolution:

  • Crypto is seen as the next wave of tech innovation, building on the internet and cloud computing.
  • Web 3.0 aims to replace traditional information networks with decentralized platforms, offering user control over data and identity.
  • Blockchain is evolving into a new technology stack, enabling trustless protocols and autonomous software businesses.

• Market Cap Trends:

  • The top 5 crypto networks have grown 37x over the same period as the FAAMG tech giants.
  • The crypto market has outpaced traditional tech sectors in terms of value capture.

• Investor Interest:

  • Institutional and retail interest in crypto is growing, with increased fund starts, AUM, and ETF flows.
  • The GBTC fund generated $3B in Q4 demand, and platforms like PayPal and Coinbase are driving adoption.

• Blockchain Companies:

  • There are 15 private blockchain company unicorns estimated at $125B.
  • Public crypto networks have captured $900B in value, significantly outperforming public blockchain companies.

• Disruption Potential:

  • Crypto is disrupting traditional financial systems, with transaction fees saving users $200B in total cost savings.
  • It is seen as a viable alternative to existing financial infrastructure, offering lower costs and more autonomy.

• Key Risks:

  • Technology may not meet disruptive expectations.
  • Adoption and usage could fall short of projections.
  • Large wallets may begin liquidating holdings.
  • Investor sentiment could shift away from crypto.
  • Regulatory scrutiny could increase.
  • Favorable macro trends may reverse.
  • Security risks like hacks or bugs could undermine the technology.

Key Information

• Bitcoin Price Targets:

  • Official target in March was $13.5k, raised to $40k by December 2020.
  • Expected to reach $100k by year-end 2021.

• Ethereum Implied Value:

  • Based on cloud PSG multiples, Ethereum's implied value is $10,481, indicating a 649% upside from the current price of ~$1,400.

• Crypto Market Cap:

  • Reached $1T in 2021, marking a turning point in investor perception.
  • Crypto is now the 16th largest digital economy globally.

• Payment Volume:

  • $3.4T in 2020, projected to hit $13.2T in FY-21.
  • Could represent 5% of global payments, or half of card volume.

• Transaction Fees:

  • Generated ~$1B in 2020, growing at a 230% 5-year CAGR.
  • Implied cost savings of $85B based on industry standard fees of 2.5%.

• User Growth:

  • Global crypto users passed 100M, following a similar trajectory to the internet in the late 1990s.

• Crypto Unicorns:

  • 32 public crypto network unicorns with a combined market cap of ~$900B.
  • 15 private blockchain companies with an estimated value of $125B.

• Technology Stack:

  • Bitcoin created a new trust layer, enabling decentralized applications and protocols.
  • Crypto is evolving into a new technology stack, offering a range of features like privacy, interoperability, and decentralized identity.

• Regulatory and Sentiment Risks:

  • Regulatory actions could impact crypto's growth.
  • Negative sentiment and capital outflows could affect the market.

Conclusion

The 2021 outlook for crypto is optimistic, with strong performance, increasing market cap, and growing adoption. Bitcoin and Ethereum are highlighted as key assets with significant growth potential. The document argues that crypto represents a new wave of technological innovation and is poised to reshape the financial sector. However, it also acknowledges the risks and challenges that the market faces, including regulatory scrutiny, security issues, and potential shifts in investor sentiment.