战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-Western-Defense-on-the-Edge-of-the-New-Millennium_47页_237kb

Summary of "Trends in Western Defense" (1999)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comparative analysis of military trends in the Western world during the late 20th century, focusing on defense spending, military manpower, military equipment, nuclear capabilities, and arms trade dynamics. It highlights the changes in military expenditures and force structures following the end of the Cold War, and evaluates the arms trade between Western nations and other regions, including the former Soviet Union (FSU), Russia, and Eastern Europe.

Main Points and Key Information

Military Spending Trends

• Major Powers (1985–1995): Military spending by major powers, including the US, NATO, Europe, the former Warsaw Pact, and Russia, shows a general decline from 1985 to 1995, reflecting the end of the Cold War and reduced military competition.
• World Defense Spending (1998): In 1998, the global military spending reached a significant level, with the US being the largest contributor. The percentage of world defense spending by country highlights the dominance of the US and the relative decline of other Western powers.
• US Military Spending as a Percent of GNP: The US consistently allocated a larger percentage of its GNP to defense compared to other NATO countries and the former Warsaw Pact nations. This percentage remained relatively stable from 1985 to 1995.
• Military Spending as a Percent of Central Government Expenditures: The US and other Western nations spent a smaller proportion of their central government budgets on defense compared to the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, indicating a shift in fiscal priorities.

Military Manpower

• Selected Major Powers (1998): The US had the largest active military manpower, followed by other NATO and Western European countries. There was a noticeable decrease in military personnel in many countries, especially in the former Warsaw Pact and Eastern Europe, as a result of post-Cold War reductions.
• US Military Manpower Compared to Others (1985–1995): The US maintained a significantly larger active military force compared to other NATO countries, the former Warsaw Pact, and Russia, reflecting its continued strategic dominance.
• Western Regular Active Military Manpower (1998): Western Europe collectively had a substantial military manpower, but the US remained the largest contributor, with a large number of active personnel in NATO Europe.

Military Equipment and Forces

• Armor and Tanks: Western countries maintained significant numbers of armored vehicles and tanks, with the US having the largest share. There was a general trend of modernization and reduction in numbers, especially in the former Warsaw Pact and Eastern Europe.
• Artillery: The US and Western Europe had substantial artillery forces, with the US maintaining a higher level of investment in modern systems.
• Fixed Wing Combat Aircraft and Attack Helicopters: The US led in the number and quality of combat aircraft and attack helicopters, with NATO Europe following closely.
• Naval Combat Ships: The US and Western Europe had a strong naval presence, with the US maintaining a large number of combat ships and carriers.

Nuclear Dimension

• US Nuclear Forces: The US had a vast nuclear arsenal, including sea-based, land-based, and air-based weapons. The document details the distribution of nuclear weapons and their associated delivery systems.
• Russia Nuclear Forces: Russia had a significant nuclear arsenal, though it was smaller than the US. It maintained a mix of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, with a focus on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
• France and UK: France and the UK had smaller but significant nuclear capabilities, primarily focused on sea-based and air-based systems.

Arms Trade and Exports/Imports

• Western Arms Exports (1986–1996): The US was the largest arms exporter, followed by the UK, France, and Germany. Exports to the FSU/Russia and Eastern Europe declined significantly after the Cold War.
• Western Arms Imports (1986–1996): The US and other Western European countries imported a smaller amount of arms compared to their exports, indicating a surplus in arms trade.
• Arms Trade by Country (1996): The US, UK, and France were the main arms traders. The US had the largest arms exports, while the UK and France had moderate levels. Germany and Russia had smaller trade volumes.
• Two-Way Arms Trade: The US and NATO European countries engaged in a two-way arms trade, with the US exporting more than it imported, and NATO Europe having a smaller surplus.

Conclusion

The document outlines the significant shifts in Western military spending and force structures post-Cold War, emphasizing the US's continued leadership in defense expenditures and military capabilities. It also highlights the decline in military manpower and the reduction in arms exports to the FSU and Eastern Europe. The arms trade remains a critical aspect of Western military policy, with the US maintaining a dominant position in both exports and imports. The nuclear dimension shows that while the US and Russia remain the largest nuclear powers, other Western countries like France and the UK also have notable capabilities. Overall, the data reflects a transition from Cold War-era military build-up to a more restrained and strategic approach in the post-Cold War era.