2006年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Labor_Market_Developments_in_Transition_40页_1mb

Summary of Regional Labor Market Developments in Transition

Core Content

This report analyzes regional labor market disparities in transition economies, focusing on the new European Union (EU) member states and candidate countries, as well as the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries, particularly Russia. It explores the causes of these disparities, the efficiency of labor market mechanisms, and the implications for policy.

Main Viewpoints

• Regional Disparities are Persistent: Large and persistent regional labor market disparities have developed in virtually all transition countries, with some evidence of polarization.
• Divergence is Linked to Transition Process: The transition to a market economy and increased global integration have significantly increased regional disparities, which are now comparable to those in many European economies.
• Starting Conditions and Market Access Matter: Differences in initial conditions and access to markets are the primary reasons for regional divergence.
• Low Labor Mobility and Wage Flexibility: Labor mobility is low in most transition countries, and wage flexibility is not significantly higher than in many EU labor markets, suggesting that regional disparities are unlikely to resolve quickly.
• Capital Movement Trends: Capital tends to move towards urban centers with high wages and low unemployment, rather than to the most backward regions.
• Policy Implications: Policymakers should adopt a long-term perspective, remove mobility barriers, review institutions, and coordinate regional and labor market policies.

Key Information

Regional Disparities in Unemployment and Employment

• Unemployment Rates: Regional disparities in unemployment rates are large and have increased over time. For example, in 2003, the ratio of the highest to lowest unemployment rates exceeded a factor of 3 in most transition countries.
• Employment Rates: Differences in employment rates range from over 10 percentage points to over 25 percentage points at the NUTS III level.
• GDP per Capita: Regional GDP per capita disparities range from 70–80% to over 200% of the national average, indicating significant economic divergence.

Regional Trends and Performance

• Urban and Border Regions Benefit: Urban centers and border regions have shown better development, while rural peripheral and mono-industrial regions have fared worse.
• Persistence of Disparities: The ranking of regions in terms of labor market performance has remained relatively stable, suggesting that these disparities are long-term rather than temporary.
• Correlation of Indicators: Correlation coefficients between unemployment rates, wages, and participation rates are high and significant in most countries, indicating that regional performance is consistent across indicators.

Data Challenges

• Heterogeneity in Regional Definitions: There is substantial variation in regional definitions, population sizes, and data availability across countries.
• Data Sources and Time Periods: Data is sourced from Eurostat, Regspec/AccessLab, and Goskomstat. The New Cronos database provides more reliable and comparable data from the late 1990s onwards.
• Regional Reforms: Many countries have undergone changes in regional classifications during transition, complicating time series comparisons.

Policy Recommendations

• Long-Term Perspective: Policy should take a long-run view of regional disparities.
• Mobility and Institutional Review: Remove barriers to labor and capital mobility, and review existing institutions for regional and labor market policy.
• Differentiated Regional Policy: A coherent but regionally differentiated policy approach is needed to address substantial regional labor market problems.
• Coordination of Policies: Close coordination between regional and labor market policies is essential for effective adjustment.

Conclusion

The evidence suggests that regional labor market disparities in transition economies are rooted in long-term structural factors and are unlikely to disappear in the short run. The classical trade-off between efficiency and equity in regional policy is more binding in these economies due to low internal migration and limited capital mobility. Understanding and addressing these disparities is crucial for both economic and political stability.