2021全球时尚业态报告（英）-麦肯锡-2020.12-128页_4mb

The State of Fashion 2021 Summary

Core Content

The State of Fashion 2021 report by McKinsey & Company provides an in-depth analysis of the fashion industry's response to the unprecedented challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. It outlines the industry's performance in 2020, predicts future scenarios for 2021, and identifies key trends and strategies that will define the coming year.

Main Predictions and Scenarios

2020 Industry Performance

• The fashion industry experienced its worst year on record, with almost 75% of listed companies losing money.
• According to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index, economic profit is expected to decline by 90% in 2020 compared to 2019.

2021 Scenarios

• Earlier Recovery Scenario: Global fashion sales would decline by 0–5% compared to 2019, with recovery expected by Q3 2022.
• Later Recovery Scenario: Sales growth would decline by 10–15%, with recovery expected only by Q4 2023.
• In both scenarios, tough trading conditions and high levels of bankruptcies, store closures, and job cuts are expected to persist.

Key Trends and Shifts

1. Digital Transformation

• The pandemic accelerated the shift to digital, with digital channels becoming the primary driver of growth.
• 30%+ online growth is expected in Europe and the US, and over 20% growth in China.
• Digital is seen as the biggest opportunity by a third of executives, with e-commerce and digitisation of business processes as top priorities.

2. Consumer Behavior Changes

• Shift to casualwear and reduced spending on luxury are notable.
• Demand for sustainability and social justice has increased.
• 66% of executives expect travel retail sales to recover only in 2–3 years.

3. Supply Chain Resilience

• The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains, prompting a move toward more resilient and sustainable practices.
• Resilience and partnerships in the supply chain are identified as a top theme for 2021.

4. Omnichannel Retail

• Companies must adopt a truly omnichannel perspective to manage the crisis in physical retail.
• Retail ROI is a critical focus, with physical retail expected to continue its decline.

5. Market Share Redistribution

• 45% of executives expect market share redistribution to be a top theme in 2021.
• Stronger players may seize market share from weaker competitors, especially in value and luxury segments.

Strategic Recommendations

• Fashion companies should tailor their strategies to fit their priorities, market exposure, and capabilities.
• Emphasis should be placed on flexibility, agility, and operational resilience.
• Data and analytics will play a critical role in decision-making, helping to track demand shifts and optimize operations.
• "Less is more" is a key principle, with a focus on simpler, more focused assortments and demand-driven models.

Consumer Expectations

• 55% of consumers expect fashion brands to care for the health of employees during crises.
• 71% of executives anticipate 20% or more growth in online business in 2021.

Regional Outlook

• Asia-Pacific is expected to lead in recovery, with stronger market valuations and higher confidence among executives.
• Europe and North America are expected to have lower recovery rates, with Europe facing a more severe impact on luxury sales.

Conclusion

The report underscores that the fashion industry is in a state of transformation, with the pandemic acting as a catalyst for long-term changes in digital engagement, sustainability, and supply chain practices. While the year ahead is uncertain and challenging, it also presents opportunities for those who adapt quickly and effectively.