2018年-查塔姆研究所_Ways_Forward_for_the_Turkey-Armenia_Rapprochement__6页_285kb

Russia and Eurasia Programme Meeting Summary: Ways Forward for the Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

Core Content

This document summarizes a discussion held at Chatham House in May 2012 on the prospects for rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, particularly in the context of the approaching centenary of the Armenian genocide in 2015. The meeting explored both the challenges and opportunities for improving relations between the two countries, with a focus on historical narratives, diplomatic efforts, and regional dynamics.

Main Views and Key Points

1. Genocide Recognition and Historical Narrative

• The Armenian genocide is a central issue in Turkey-Armenia relations, with the centenary in 2015 likely to influence political discourse.
• The Turkish government officially denies the genocide, but the ban on using the term 'genocide' in Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code is no longer enforced.
• The rise of the AKP has led to a shift in Turkey's national narrative, with some deputies challenging the official stance on the genocide.
• The Turkish government may use the Maltese verdicts of 1919 (where Ottoman officials were acquitted for political reasons) to argue against the genocide label.

2. Diplomatic and Political Initiatives

• The Turkish government has taken some proactive steps, such as allowing the return of property to non-Muslim religious organizations and offering refuge to Armenians in Syria.
• However, reactive measures, such as the Turkish Foreign Minister's statement dismissing the difference between 23 and 24 April 2012, indicate continued resistance.
• The Zürich protocols (October 2009) were a significant diplomatic step, but they did not address the genocide or Nagorno-Karabakh directly, focusing instead on border opening and diplomatic relations.

3. Regional and International Implications

• Normalization of relations could have positive regional and international effects, especially for Georgia, which may benefit from a more stable South Caucasus.
• The US does not prioritize genocide recognition, but Turkey's stance is crucial for Armenia.
• The Armenian diaspora remains a key force for genocide recognition, though their recent boycott campaigns have been ineffective.

4. Azerbaijan's Role and Tensions

• Azerbaijan is a key player in the region due to its political and economic significance.
• The Zürich protocols were signed without prior consultation with Azerbaijan, leading to public opposition in Turkey.
• Azerbaijan is actively countering reconciliation efforts through cultural and political lobbying in Turkey and Europe.
• The Karabakh issue is a major point of contention, with both sides frustrated by the lack of progress.

5. Track II Diplomacy and Civil Society

• Track II diplomacy (non-official, civil society-led initiatives) is playing a role in building momentum for normalization.
• These efforts aim to create bottom-up pressure and provide cover for political elites.
• Focus groups are used to monitor public sentiment and track trends before they reach the media.

6. Economic and Security Considerations

• Economic benefits of border opening are limited, but it could reduce Georgia's monopoly on trade.
• Shared security interests exist, including cooperation on issues like avian flu and the PKK.
• The opening of the border could indirectly lead to genocide recognition, which would weaken the diaspora's main rallying point.

7. Political Dynamics and Future Prospects

• The Armenian government is unlikely to ratify the Zürich protocols, but it should articulate clear demands.
• The upcoming 2012 parliamentary elections in Armenia may signal a shift in political priorities, with the economy taking precedence over genocide and Karabakh.
• The Armenian president, Sargsyan, may seek to leave a legacy through normalization with Turkey, especially as the next generation of politicians may not be tied to Karabakh.
• There are signs of declining support for Erdoğan's authoritarian style, and his health may limit his political involvement.

Key Recommendations

• Armenia should focus on creating a win-win scenario for Azerbaijan to ease tensions.
• The international community should support new political elites and expand beyond traditional NGOs.
• The use of social media by moderates is helping to shift public opinion, despite the resistance of hardliners.
• The opening of the border should be considered as a limited step rather than a full-scale move, to avoid triggering further conflict.

Conclusion

The rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia remains a complex and sensitive issue, influenced by historical grievances, political dynamics, and regional security concerns. While progress is slow, there are opportunities for incremental steps that could lead to a more stable and cooperative relationship. The centenary of the Armenian genocide in 2015 may serve as a pivotal moment, though the path to recognition and reconciliation remains uncertain.