全球能源转型展望2023—全球和区域展望至2050-英-211页_30mb

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2023 Summary

Core Content

The Energy Transition Outlook 2023 is a global and regional forecast of the energy system up to 2050. It highlights the slow progress of the energy transition and the impact of geopolitical shifts, energy security concerns, and policy developments on the global energy landscape.

Main Points

1. The Transition is Still at the Starting Blocks

• Global energy-related emissions are still increasing and are expected to peak in 2024, marking the beginning of the transition.
• Renewables have met 51% of new energy demand since 2017–2022, but fossil fuel use is still growing in absolute terms.
• High oil and gas prices have led to a surge in new projects and a reversion to coal in some regions, which is increasing emissions.
• Natural gas is losing its status as a "bridging fuel" due to its inability to meet long-term sustainability goals.

2. Renewables Will Outpace Fossils by Mid-2020s

• By 2050, non-fossil sources are projected to make up 52% of the energy mix, up from 20% today.
• Solar and wind electricity production will increase 13-fold and 17-fold, respectively, by 2050.
• Coal use will decline from 26% of primary energy today to 10% by 2050.
• Fossil energy demand is expected to decrease from 490 EJ to 314 EJ by 2050, with a cumulative reduction of 1,673 EJ or 275,000 million barrels of oil equivalent.

3. Energy Security is a Top Priority

• The war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions have shifted the focus to energy security.
• Local energy production is increasingly prioritized over imports, especially in energy-importing regions.
• Reshoring and friend-shoring policies are increasing supply chain costs and complexity, which affects the cost of energy infrastructure.

4. Policy Impact on the Transition

• Decarbonization policies such as the EU’s Fit for 55 and RePowerEU and the US Inflation Reduction Act are accelerating the transition.
• Hydrogen production in North America is increasing, with the Inflation Reduction Act supporting clean energy investments.
• Shipping is expected to transition faster due to EU emission trading system and IMO’s decarbonization strategy.
• Clean technology development is being driven by the "race to the top" among advanced economies, but medium- and low-income regions may lag without de-risked financing.

5. Grid Constraints are a Major Bottleneck

• Grid expansion is critical for the fast and efficient transfer of renewable energy.
• Transmission and distribution grid constraints are a key near-term bottleneck for renewable expansion in North America, Europe, and other regions.
• Grid expansion is also essential for hydrogen production, which depends on demand-side measures.

6. Emissions Will Fall, but Not Fast or Far Enough

• Global energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to be 46% lower in 2050 than today, but only 4% lower by 2030.
• This trajectory is associated with a global warming of 2.2°C by the end of this century.
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C is becoming less likely due to the slow pace of the transition.

Key Trends and Impacts

• Energy security is reshaping the energy trilemma, with renewables and nuclear becoming more attractive due to their local availability.
• Coal is still a major part of the energy mix in some regions, especially the Indian Subcontinent.
• Renewable projects are facing cost increases due to inflation and supply chain disruptions, but cost reductions are expected to return to historical learning curves by 2028.
• Nuclear energy is gaining interest due to energy security concerns, but faces challenges such as cost overruns, safety, and public perception.
• Protectionist policies may accelerate the energy transition by boosting local renewable investments, but could also hinder global cooperation on climate action.

Geopolitical and Economic Shifts

• Slowbalization is a trend characterized by reduced international trade and increased focus on national energy security.
• Trade openness has declined since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and energy security is now a central concern.
• Supply chain disruptions from the Ukraine war have led to diversification in energy sourcing and manufacturing, especially in renewables and critical infrastructure.
• Energy security considerations have revised our power sector forecasts, with local sourcing influencing investment and production decisions.

Regional Forecast Impacts

• Europe is expected to accelerate its transition, with nuclear and renewables becoming more prominent.
• Greater China will see increased coal and nuclear use, while renewables like biomass and wind will grow more slowly.
• The Indian Subcontinent is projected to slow its transition, with more coal in the energy mix due to local availability and cost considerations.
• Global primary energy demand is expected to increase slightly due to population growth, but non-fossil sources will dominate by 2050.

Conclusion

The energy transition is expected to be slow and uneven, with renewables and nuclear playing a key role in enhancing energy security. However, grid constraints, supply chain issues, and economic pressures are hindering progress. Policy support is critical to achieving net-zero by 2050, but global cooperation and investment in infrastructure are necessary to ensure equitable and rapid transition.