20160324-招商证券_香港_-康哲药业-00867.HK-FY15_largely_in-line,_new_products_secure_LT_growth_12页_1mb

Focus Charts and Financial Analysis Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive financial analysis of a company's performance, focusing on revenue, profit margins, earnings, and valuation metrics. It includes historical and forecasted financial data for FY15 to FY18, as well as a DCF-based valuation and P/E/PEG analysis for comparison with industry peers.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue and Growth

• Total Revenue:

  • FY15: RMB 3,553,431,000
  • FY16E: RMB 4,946,346,000 (+39% YoY)
  • FY17E: RMB 5,993,914,000 (+21% YoY)
  • FY18E: RMB 6,924,866,000 (+16% YoY)

• Direct Model Revenue Growth:

  • FY16E: +47%
  • FY17E: +24%
  • FY18E: +17%

• Agency Model Revenue Growth:

  • FY16E: +1%
  • FY17E: +2%
  • FY18E: +3%

Profit Margins

• Gross Margin:

  • FY15: 57.6%
  • FY16E: 56.0%
  • FY17E: 56.5%
  • FY18E: 56.5%

• Operating Margin:

  • FY15: 29.2%
  • FY16E: 28.1%
  • FY17E: 29.1%
  • FY18E: 29.6%

• Net Margin:

  • FY15: 28.0%
  • FY16E: 26.8%
  • FY17E: 27.8%
  • FY18E: 28.3%

Earnings and Dividends

• Net Income:

  • FY15: RMB 995,935,000
  • FY16E: RMB 1,325,818,000 (+33% YoY)
  • FY17E: RMB 1,667,417,000 (+26% YoY)
  • FY18E: RMB 1,962,249,000 (+18% YoY)

• EPS (Earnings Per Share):

  • FY15: RMB 0.4037
  • FY16E: RMB 0.5375 (+33% YoY)
  • FY17E: RMB 0.6759 (+26% YoY)
  • FY18E: RMB 0.7955 (+18% YoY)

• Dividend and Payout Ratio:

  • Dividends and payout ratios are consistent across the periods, with a focus on maintaining a stable payout ratio.

Valuation Analysis

DCF Valuation

• 12-Month Target Price: HK$14.0
• Upside Potential: +30% from the current price of HK$10.8
• Key Assumptions:
  • Risk-free rate: 3.00%
  • Equity risk premium: 9.00%
  • Beta: 0.9
  • Cost of equity: 11.1%
  • WACC: 10.6%
  • Terminal growth rate: 3%

Sensitivity Analysis

• Target Price Range:
  • High end: HK$16.4 (26x 2016E P/E)
  • Midpoint: HK$14.0 (22x 2016E P/E)
  • Low end: HK$12.4 (20x 2016E P/E)
• Parameters:
  • WACC: 9.6%, 10.6%, 11.6%
  • Terminal growth rate: 2%, 3%, 4%

P/E and PEG Analysis

• Current P/E (FY16E): 16x
• Historical Average P/E: 22x
• PEG (2016E): 1.0x
• Peer Comparison:
  • China Medical System (康哲药业): P/E 22.7, PEG 0.82
  • SINOPHARM-H (国药控股): P/E 16.5, PEG 0.8
  • SHANGHAI PHARM-H (上海医药): P/E 11.0, PEG 1.4
  • HUADONG MEDICI-A (华东医药): P/E 22.7, PEG 1.4
  • CHINA NT PHARMA (泰凌医药): P/E 22.0, PEG 3.0
  • Simple Average P/E: 29.7
  • Weighted Average P/E: 26.7

Valuation Ratios

• P/B (Price to Book):

  • FY15: 5.7
  • FY16E: 4.9
  • FY17E: 3.9

• PEG:

  • FY15: 0.82
  • FY16E: 0.5
  • FY17E: 0.8

• P/E Band:

  • FY15: 42.2 to 26.5
  • FY16E: 33.3 to 26.5
  • FY17E: 26.5 to 16.2

Main Points

• The company is projected to see significant revenue growth from FY16 to FY18, with the Direct Model showing stronger growth compared to the Agency Model.
• Profit margins are stable, with gross margin slightly decreasing and operating and net margins improving.
• The EPS is expected to rise steadily, with a target price of HK$14.0 based on DCF analysis, offering a 30% upside from the current price.
• The company is currently trading at a P/E of 16x, which is below the historical average of 22x, indicating potential undervaluation.
• PEG is at 1.0x, suggesting that the stock may be fairly valued based on its growth rate.
• Peer comparisons show that the company's valuation is competitive, with some peers trading at similar or higher P/E and PEG ratios.

Key Information

• The DCF model assumes a cost of equity of 11.1% and a WACC of 10.6%.
• The terminal growth rate is set at 3%.
• The sensitivity analysis highlights the impact of WACC and terminal growth rates on the target price.
• The company's financial performance is closely monitored through various financial metrics, including revenue breakdown, operating cash flow, and net income.
• The document includes several figures that provide visual insights into financial trends and valuations, although the images are not included in this summary.