2014年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan___Strong_Growth_Rising_Risks_28页_1mb

Tajikistan Economic Report Summary (Spring 2014)

Core Content

Tajikistan's economy experienced strong growth in 2013, reaching 7.4 percent, driven by record remittances of $4.1 billion, which accounted for nearly 49 percent of GDP. These remittances fueled private consumption and to a lesser extent, investment. However, the country faces rising risks due to its reliance on remittances, a narrow export base, and weak institutions.

Main Views

• Economic Growth:

  • The economy grew at 7.4% in 2013, primarily due to high remittance inflows.
  • Growth is expected to slow to 7% in 2014 and decline further without structural reforms.
  • Services remained the largest sector, contributing almost half of GDP, followed by agriculture.
  • Construction sector growth rebounded to 17.2% YoY, partly due to public infrastructure projects and private real estate activity.
  • Agricultural output grew at 7.6%, but growth in industrial output slowed, with manufacturing contracting by 0.8%.

• Labor Market and Poverty:

  • Wage employment decreased by 2% YoY, with services showing strong growth and agriculture declining.
  • The poverty headcount ratio dropped from 96% in 1999 to 47% in 2009, and preliminary estimates suggest it was around 36% in 2012/3.
  • The government aims to reduce poverty to 30% by 2015 and 20% by 2020.
  • High real wage growth outpaced productivity, negatively affecting competitiveness.

• External Accounts:

  • Remittances offset the widening trade deficit, but the current account deficit expanded to 3.3% of GDP in the medium term.
  • Exports of aluminum and cotton declined by 24.6% and 20.5% respectively due to weak external demand and lower prices.
  • Imports increased by 9.1%, with a significant rise in consumer goods, especially vehicles.
  • The economy is highly concentrated in exports to CIS countries, with Turkey, Russia, and China as the main trading partners.

• Inflation:

  • Inflation fell to a record low of 3.7% in 2013 due to stable food prices and exchange rates.
  • Food prices, which make up 58% of the consumer basket, increased only 2.8%, keeping inflation low.
  • Administrative controls during Ramadan also helped reduce inflation.

Key Information

• Remittances:

  • Reached $4.1 billion in 2013, the highest ever, supporting consumption and investment.
  • The country is highly dependent on remittances, which are the largest source of foreign exchange earnings.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The overall budget deficit widened to 1.3% of GDP in 2013 from a surplus of 0.1% in 2012.
  • Revenue collection reached 27% of GDP, with VAT being the main contributor (43% of total revenue).
  • Non-tax revenues declined, and tax arrears increased to 7.6% of total government revenue.

• Monetary Policy:

  • The NBT reduced the refinancing rate to 4.80% in 2014, down from 6.50% in 2013.
  • The exchange rate remained stable against major currencies, with the somoni (TJS) appreciating against the ruble and depreciating against the euro.
  • Net international reserves (NIR) grew by 15.9% in 2013 but remained low at around $800 million.

• Financial Sector:

  • Credit to GDP ratio is below adequate levels, and the banking sector is not profitable.
  • Non-performing loans (NPLs) reached a record high of 21.2% of total loans, signaling governance and capacity issues.
  • Financial intermediation is limited, and the sector is vulnerable to liquidity shocks.

• Structural Reforms:

  • The government needs to accelerate reforms to improve the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation.
  • Reforms should focus on improving the business climate, labor market competitiveness, public sector efficiency, and financial sector governance.
  • Education and skill development are crucial for the labor market, with a significant portion of enterprises citing lack of skills as a barrier to growth.

Outlook

• Growth: Expected to ease to 7% in 2014 and decline further in the medium term without structural reforms.
• Inflation: Likely to remain low due to stable food prices and moderate nominal depreciation of the TJS.
• Fiscal Deficit: Projected to stay under 1.5% of GDP, supported by improved revenue collection.
• Current Account Deficit: Projected to widen to 3.3% of GDP due to weak export growth and declining remittances.
• Import Trends: Continued growth in capital goods imports, with a shift in import composition toward "other goods."

Conclusion

Tajikistan's economy is experiencing strong growth, but this is largely driven by remittances and not by domestic investment or export performance. The country is vulnerable to external shocks due to its narrow export base, high dependence on remittances, and weak institutional framework. Structural reforms are essential to improve competitiveness, reduce poverty, and ensure sustainable economic growth.