2016年-世界发展银行全球_Competitiveness_of_the_Kyrgyz_Economy_in_the_Wake_of_Accession_to_the_Eurasian_Customs_Union___Selected_Issues_and_Opportunities_138页_3mb

Summary of the Kyrgyz Economy's Competitiveness in the Wake of Accession to the Eurasian Customs Union

Core Content

This document evaluates the impact of the Kyrgyz Republic's accession to the Eurasian Customs Union (CU) and the Common Economic Space (CES) on its economic competitiveness, particularly in the sectors of food, services, and garments. It also outlines the challenges and opportunities associated with adapting to the technical and regulatory requirements of the CU and the broader Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Main Views and Key Information

1. Accession Overview

• The Kyrgyz Republic joined the CU in May 2015, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia.
• The EEU, which came into full effect in January 2016, facilitates the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor among member states.
• The CU provides access to a large consumer market of 170 million people and a GDP of $2.3 trillion, but the short-term effects on growth and trade are expected to be mixed due to increased external tariffs and trade diversion.

2. Economic Context and Impact

• Despite economic slowdowns in Russia and the region, the Kyrgyz economy has shown resilience.
• The Kyrgyz currency (som) depreciated by 20% since the onset of the Ukraine crisis, leading to inflation.
• Worker remittances, mainly from Russia, have been resilient but are expected to fall by 15% in 2015.
• Trade with the EU increased three-fold in 2015, while trade with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan declined significantly.
• The Kyrgyz Republic's trade with the EU has led to a large export surplus, with Switzerland accounting for over 90% of European exports.

3. National Quality Infrastructure (NQI)

• The Kyrgyz NQI has the essentials of a metrology system, technical regulation development capacity, and accreditation capability.
• It has been granted ILAC recognition, reinforcing the credibility of its national accreditation system.
• However, the main challenge is the implementation of new technical regulations (TRs) within the accelerated timeframe of the accession road map.
• The report emphasizes the need for infrastructure investments in border control and testing laboratories to meet CU requirements.
• The Russian grant of $200 million will finance the modernization of border control infrastructure, including testing laboratories and certifying bodies.

4. Food Sector and Regulatory Alignment

• Agriculture and food products are significant contributors to the Kyrgyz economy, accounting for 18% of GDP in 2014 and 20% of exports in 2013.
• The Kyrgyz Republic is relatively better prepared to meet CU requirements due to its internationally accredited laboratories.
• However, several institutional and legislative challenges remain, particularly in food safety and phytosanitary compliance.
• The Russian embargo on EU food imports presents an opportunity for Kyrgyz agriculture to increase unprocessed product exports.
• The report highlights the difference between the EU and CU approaches to food safety: the EU emphasizes preventive measures, while the CU focuses on end-product compliance to specific standards.

5. Services Trade and Competitiveness

• Services are a growing sector in the Kyrgyz economy, contributing 56% to GDP in 2013 and representing a third of exports.
• The sector is driven by tourism and other traditional services, but there is an opportunity to develop higher value-added services.
• CU accession may impact the services sector through increased external tariffs and new technical requirements, such as mandatory product insurance.
• The report notes that re-exports, which made up 20% of exports to CIS countries in 2013, are expected to decline to under 15% by 2020.
• Free labor mobility within the EEU is expected to be difficult in the short term due to income and infrastructure disparities.

6. Garment Sector and Competitiveness

• The garment sector has been a key driver of growth, with output increasing sevenfold between 2004 and 2012.
• It is thought to employ around 150,000 people and is expected to face increased external tariffs (3.6% to 7.7% or more) upon joining the CU.
• The sector's reliance on imported cloth and materials will increase production costs, especially for firms using more expensive textiles.
• Key constraints include limited administrative and technical skills, lack of access to finance and expertise, and corruption.
• The report recommends interventions to address these challenges, including investment in market intelligence and employee skills development.

Recommendations

• Strengthen the national quality infrastructure (NQI) by investing in testing laboratories and border control infrastructure.
• Implement international standards for food safety, such as HACCP, to improve compliance with EEU and CU requirements.
• Focus on developing higher value-added services and diversifying the export base.
• Address the constraints in the garment sector through training, financial support, and regulatory reforms.
• Continue to explore trade opportunities beyond the CU, including with China, Turkey, and the EU.
• Build expertise in services policy reform and improve the understanding of international commitments among regulators.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic's accession to the CU presents both challenges and opportunities for its economy. While the short-term effects may be mixed, the long-term benefits could be significant if the country effectively adapts to new regulatory frameworks and strengthens its quality infrastructure. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact on key sectors and outlines strategic recommendations to enhance competitiveness and ensure sustainable growth.