2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Togo_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_16页_463kb

Togo Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) - SCAPE 2013-2014 Joint Staff Advisory Note Summary

Overview

Togo's new Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Strategy for Boosting Growth and Promoting Employment (SCAPE) 2013–2017—was adopted by the Government on August 29, 2013. It outlines the country's development agenda with the goal of becoming a middle-income country within 15–20 years, emphasizing respect for the rule of law and human rights. The strategy addresses four critical challenges: accelerating economic growth and employment, improving governance, managing demographic pressures, and enhancing urban development.

SCAPE builds on previous poverty reduction strategies (I-PRSP 2008 and full PRSP 2009–2012), which focused on economic rehabilitation, rule of law, and HIPC completion. However, SCAPE is more ambitious, aiming for a middle-income status. The strategy was developed through inclusive and participatory consultations, including a national forum and multiple national consultations, culminating in the adoption by the Cabinet.

Poverty and Access to Services

Poverty remains widespread in Togo, with 59% of the population living in poverty in 2011. Regional disparities are significant, with the poorest regions like Northern Savanes having a poverty incidence of 91%, while Lomé has 33%. Although poverty declined slightly since 2006, the depth and severity of poverty increased, as reflected in the Gini coefficient, which rose from 0.36 to 0.39.

Access to education improved between 2006 and 2011, with net enrollment in primary schools increasing significantly after the abolition of school fees in 2008. However, primary school enrollment is not yet universal, and the poorest households are underrepresented in attendance. Secondary education enrollment increased but remains low at 50%.

Access to water improved, with 56% of households having safe drinking water in 2011, up from 51% in 2006. Progress was uneven, with urban areas seeing greater improvements than rural ones. The poorest households experienced declining access to water, while the wealthiest saw increases.

Access to health services deteriorated, particularly for the poorest households, with a significant drop in hospital visits. The poorest households are also less likely to access health services, highlighting the need for improved equity in service delivery.

Electricity access improved, especially in urban areas, with Lomé reaching 84% in 2011. Rural access remains low at 10%. The staffs note that the growth of the telecommunications sector is promising, with a new act aimed at enhancing competition and lowering costs.

Macroeconomic Policies and Framework

Togo's macroeconomic performance improved significantly since 2007, with real growth exceeding 5% in 2012–13. However, the external position remains fragile due to current account deficits and high public debt, which rose from 15.6% of GDP in 2011 to 18.9% in 2013. Domestic debt reached 25.1% of GDP, and total debt 44% of GDP.

The SCAPE presents two growth scenarios: a baseline scenario projecting 5.9% average growth and a more ambitious accelerated growth scenario of 7.1% per year. The latter would reduce poverty to 43.5% by 2017 and potentially to 39.2% with redistributive policies. Both scenarios require strong and sustained public investment, efficient public sector management, and structural reforms in key areas like transport, energy, and telecommunications.

Staffs caution against over-reliance on commercial financing and emphasize the need for concessional funding. They also highlight the need for better fiscal management, with concerns over the under-execution of public investment budgets and the misallocation of funds into current expenditures rather than long-term investments.

Strategic Pillars

A. Development of Sectors with Strong Growth Potential

SCAPE prioritizes agriculture as a key driver of growth and poverty reduction, aiming to boost productivity through modernization and mechanization. Specific actions include building feeder roads, financing small producers, and increasing land under cultivation. The success of these initiatives depends on the implementation of the Programme National d'Investissement Agricole et de Sécurité Alimentaire (PNIASA) and effective fund mobilization.

Industry and service sectors are also emphasized, with a focus on leveraging comparative advantages such as agriculture and mineral resources. The staffs support the focus on strengthening financial intermediation and trade but urge for more detailed growth strategies.

B. Strengthening Economic Infrastructure

Improving economic infrastructure is a central pillar of SCAPE, addressing constraints such as poor telecommunications, energy, and transport systems. The Doing Business Survey ranked Togo 156th out of 185 countries, highlighting the need for better infrastructure.

The development corridor concept, which includes multi-modal transport infrastructure, is questioned for its economic justification. Staffs recommend conducting cost-benefit analyses for large projects and caution against overreliance on public-private partnerships (PPPs), which have had mixed success in Togo.

Efforts to expand electricity generation are welcomed, but the country's reliance on imports makes it vulnerable. The staffs recommend cost-effective generation methods and opening the grid to independent producers.

C. Developing Human Capital

Education reforms have had a positive impact, with budget allocations increasing to 4.6% of GDP in 2011. The SCAPE aims for universal primary education by 2020 and increased investment in non-primary training. However, the quality of education remains low, with significant learning deficiencies and high teacher absenteeism.

The staffs emphasize the need for improved teacher training, curriculum upgrades, and teaching materials. They caution that achieving universal access may be constrained by limited funding and capacity, and recommend a focus on quality alongside access.

Health services have not seen adequate improvement, with public spending on health below the 15% threshold set by the Abuja Declaration. The SCAPE aims to improve the quality and equity of health services, but staffs note that many commitments are vague and require clearer policy measures.

Social safety nets are underdeveloped, and the SCAPE does not propose scaling up existing programs. Staffs recommend integrating school feeding and conditional cash transfer schemes into the poverty reduction strategy to address extreme poverty and vulnerability.

D. Strengthening Governance

Governance reforms since 2006 have contributed to improved economic performance and reactivation of donor relations. The SCAPE continues this focus, with three priority areas: political and institutional, administrative and local, and economic reforms.

Staffs support the commitment to governance reforms but highlight repeated delays and persistent capacity constraints. They urge the authorities to improve fiscal management, reduce extra-budgetary spending, and strengthen oversight. Filling key positions, such as the Minister of Health, is seen as a critical step towards improving governance and service delivery.

Conclusion

The SCAPE represents a comprehensive and ambitious strategy for Togo's development, with a focus on growth, employment, and poverty reduction. However, its success depends on effective implementation, better resource allocation, and addressing structural challenges. The staffs emphasize the need for stronger governance, improved fiscal management, and inclusive policies to ensure equitable access to services and sustainable growth.