全球EV展望2023-英-22页_751kb

报告摘要

Electrification is rapidly spreading across all road transport segments, driven by technological advancements and policy support.
EV sales surged in recent years, projected to reach nearly 27 million units globally by 2026, with a 14% increase from 2022. EV share of new passenger vehicle sales jumped to 30% in 2026.
China and Europe show high EV adoption rates (52% and 42% respectively by 2026), while the gap between wealthy and emerging economies widens in the short term. By 2040, the global EV fleet is expected to exceed 100 million vehicles.

Sales of internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and are in long-term decline, set to be 39% lower by 2026 compared to their 2017 peak.
The combustion vehicle fleet peaks in 2025, with less than 50% of the global passenger vehicle fleet being electric by 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario.

Electrification extends beyond passenger cars to commercial vehicles, buses, two- and three-wheelers, reducing emissions and reshaping markets.
Electric heavy trucks and buses are accelerating quickly, with EVs reaching 70% of commercial van and truck sales by 2040 in China.
Municipal buses are electrifying rapidly, with Europe and the US catching up, while two- and three-wheeled vehicles are nearly all electric by 2040 in many regions.

Achieving net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is feasible but requires faster progress, especially for heavy trucks.
Road transport oil demand is nearing its peak, with a sharp decline expected, though diesel trucks remain a challenge.
EVs reduce overall oil consumption by displacing millions of barrels per day, with global oil demand from road transport projected to peak in 2027 at 33.5 million b/d in the Economic Transition Scenario.

Battery prices peaked in 2022 but an 18% learning rate scenario could push price parity earlier; however, progress differs by region.
Advances include solid-state, sodium-ion batteries, and next-generation materials, which could shift raw material supplies and reduce demand for cobalt and nickel.
High-power charging for trucks is becoming crucial, with induced voltage charging (IVC) offering benefits, though infrastructure investment is needed.

The EV and battery market could reach $57 trillion by 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario, creating industrial policy focus and investment opportunities.
Challenges include the need for $188 billion in battery cell investments by the end of the decade and scaling new resource development to meet material demands.
Charging infrastructure requires over $1 trillion in cumulative investment, with public charging gaps potentially hindering full electrification adoption.

AVs could significantly alter the passenger vehicle fleet, with a high-automation scenario reducing fleet size by 29% by 2050 and a low-scenario increasing it by 29%+.
This will influence charging infrastructure needs, with high-AV adoption reducing charger requirements by 40%.

Policymakers must drive EV adoption through incentives, emission standards, and grid readiness to meet net-zero goals.
Global cooperation on supply chains, grid investment, and regulations is essential for comprehensive road transport decarbonization.

Net Zero Scenario projects even faster emission reductions, with EVs surpassing 75% of new passenger vehicle sales by 2040 and significant displacement of oil demand.
The report highlights that while EVs lead decarbonization, other technologies like hydrogen and fuel cells play niche roles in hard-to-electrify sectors.

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