2021-10-04-牛津经济研究院-Global_EV_transition_will_turbocharge_demand_for_electricity_4页_558kb

EV Transition Will Increase Electricity Demand

The economic briefing highlights that the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), will significantly accelerate electricity demand over the coming decades. Based on new forecasting methodology using data from LMC Automotive, the road sector's share of global electricity demand is projected to rise from less than 0.5% in 2021 to 7% by 2050, with Europe and China leading the charge.

Key factors include the faster uptake of EVs in personal transport compared to commercial vehicles, especially heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs), due to barriers like longer distances and heavier loads. This shift displaces oil demand and changes the energy mix, with significant growth expected in major markets like China, where electricity consumption by road vehicles could reach 33% of total energy use by 2050.

Uncertainties are noted, especially around HGV electrification, which depends on future battery advancements. Additionally, greenhouse gas mitigation benefits fromEV adoption vary based on the carbon intensity of the electricity grid, which increases with renewable expansion.

The methodology involves aggregating national sales data, modeling vehicle stock lifespans, and calculating electricity demand per vehicle type, providing detailed country-specific variations influenced by incentive schemes and regulations. Overall, the EV transition poses a substantial increase in electricity demand while promoting energy efficiency and potential emissions reductions.