20140414-大华银行-PLEASE_CLICK_ON_THE_PAGE_NUMBER_TO_MOVE_TO_THE_RELEVANT_PAGE_34页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - April 14, 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides insights into the regional markets, focusing on Singapore, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It includes investment strategies, sector updates, company-specific analysis, and key assumptions and risks.
Main Points
Singapore
- Strategy: Mid-cap stocks are highlighted as having more upside potential compared to large caps.
- Top Picks: Sino Grandness, Osim, Overseas Education, and Pacific Radiance are identified as top picks based on the UOBKH Mid Cap Due Diligence study.
- Airlines:
- SIA (Singapore Airlines): Downgraded to HOLD due to limited upside and concerns over entering the Indian market.
- Cathay Pacific: Recommended for BUY due to potential yield improvements.
- Thai Airways: SELL due to growing competition and cannibalization by Nok Air.
- AirAsia and Tigerair: Both are SELL due to weak performance and high valuations.
- Airports: Recommended for OVERWEIGHT. Airports of Thailand and Beijing Capital International Airport are highlighted as top picks.
China
- Economic Outlook: Mild inflation (2.4% yoy in March 2014) remains benign. The PBoC may loosen credit if growth slows.
- Consumer Sector: Bi-weekly updates on milk products.
- Company Updates:
- Brilliance Auto (1114 HK): 1Q14 sales beat expectations.
- Kaisa Group (1638 HK): Strong in city redevelopment.
- SPT Energy Group (1251 HK): Positive outlook from corporate roadshow.
Indonesia
- Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ): 1Q14 marketing sales reached Rp1.8t, or 30% of the 2014 target. Valuation is undemanding.
Malaysia
- IJM Plantations (IJMP MK): FY14 results expected to be in line with expectations. Lower CPO ASP and FFB production growth of 5.4%.
- CPO Outlook: Expected to rise due to tight supply and increased biodiesel usage in Indonesia.
Key Assumptions
| Country | GDP (yoy) 2012 | GDP (yoy) 2013F | GDP (yoy) 2014F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Euro Zone | -0.7 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Japan | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Singapore | 1.9 | 4.1* | 4.3 |
| Malaysia | 5.6 | 4.7* | 5.2 |
| Thailand | 6.4 | 2.9* | 3.0 |
| Indonesia | 6.2 | 5.8* | 6.0 |
| Hong Kong | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| China*Actual | 7.8 | 7.7* | 6.9 |
- CPO (Crude Palm Oil): Expected to rise to RM2,900-3,000/tonne due to tight supply and demand from biodiesel.
- Brent Crude: Expected to remain at US$110/bbl in 2014 and 2015.
- Aluminium: Expected to decline from US$1,886/mt in 2013 to US$1,713/mt in 2014.
- Copper: Expected to decline from US$7,354/mt in 2013 to US$6,850/mt in 2014.
- Gold: Expected to decline from US$1,407/oz in 2013 to US$1,200/oz in 2014.
- Iron Ore: Expected to decline from US$135/mt in 2013 to US$120/mt in 2014.
- BDI (Baltic Dry Index): Expected to rise from 1,219 in 2014 to 1,500 in 2015.
Sector Catalysts
- Aviation: Continued pax traffic growth is a key catalyst, but yield pressure remains a risk.
- Plantation: CPO prices are expected to rise due to limited supply growth and stable demand, especially from biodiesel mandates in Indonesia.
Corporate Events
- Xingda International: Corporate Roadshow in Taipei (16-17 Apr).
- Singapore Office Property Sector Analyst Presentation: In Singapore (16 Apr) and Kuala Lumpur (28 Apr).
- CapitaCommercial Trust Brunch: In Singapore (21 Apr).
- Riverstone Corporate Luncheon: In Singapore (22 Apr).
- Sa Sa Corporate Roadshow: In Taipei (29 Apr).
- Chaowei Power Corporate Roadshow: In Boston and Toronto (29-30 May).
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Target Price (Icy) | Share Price (Icy) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathay Pacific | 293 HK | HK$18.90 | HK$15.26 | 20.3% |
| Airports of Thailand | AOT TB | Bt210 | Bt195 | 7.7% |
| Beijing Capital Intl Airport | 694 HK | HK$7.00 | HK$5.45 | 28.6% |
| Wilmar International | WIL SP | S$4.20 | S$3.45 | 21.8% |
| First Resources | FR SP | S$2.80 | S$2.35 | 18.6% |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL SP | S$1.40 | S$1.04 | 34.6% |
| Golden Agri-Res | GGR SP | S$0.700* | S$0.590 | 18.6% |
| Astra Agro Lestari | AALI IJ | Rp27,500* | Rp27,700 | 1.8% |
Risks
- Deflationary pressure on pax yields could impact airline performance.
- Supply constraints in the palm oil sector due to dry weather and logistics bottlenecks.
- High export taxes on soybeans in Argentina could reduce international soybean availability.
- Competition and cannibalization in the aviation sector, especially for Thai Airways and AirAsia.
Share Price Performance
| Company | Ticker | Share Price (Icy) | YoY (%) | YTD (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sime Darby | SIME MK | 9.28 | 20.1 | 3.4 |
| IOI Corporation | IOI MK | 4.87 | 26.7 | -0.7 |
| KL Kepong | KLK MK | 23.92 | 10.1 | -2.5 |
| Willmar International | WIL SP | 3.45 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Golden Agri-Res | GGR SP | 0.590 | 4.4 | 8.3 |
| First Resources | FR SP | 2.35 | 26.3 | 10.8 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL SP | 1.04 | 2.5 | 10.1 |
| Astra Agro Lestari | AALI IJ | 27,700 | 51.4 | 10.4 |
Analyst Contact
- K Ajith: +65 6590 6627 | ajith@uobkayhian.com
- Joshua Low: +65 6590 6616 | joshualow@uobkayhian.com
Summary
The report highlights a positive outlook for mid-cap stocks in Singapore, with specific focus on companies like Sino Grandness, Osim, Overseas Education, and Pacific Radiance. In the aviation sector, while pax traffic is growing, yield pressures remain a concern, with Cathay Pacific, Airports of Thailand, and Beijing Capital International Airport recommended as top picks. In the plantation sector, CPO prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and increased biodiesel demand, especially in Indonesia. Key risks include deflationary pressures on yields and supply constraints in the palm oil and soybean markets. The report also includes updates on several companies and a list of corporate events.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
