国际危机组织-2021-2022年联合国面临的十大挑战（英）-2021.9-20页_296kb

UN Summary: Ten Challenges for the UN in 2021-2022

I. Overview

The UN General Assembly's high-level session in September 2021 highlighted the organisation's ongoing challenges in international crisis management. Despite its political and operational limitations, the UN remains essential for humanitarian aid and mediation in conflicts like those in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. The UN's role in preventing further escalation and addressing long-term issues such as climate change and disinformation is critical, even as its effectiveness is questioned.

II. The UN and Crisis Management in 2021

A. The Security Council

• The Security Council has become more civil but not significantly more effective in managing crises.
• The U.S. under Biden has taken a more diplomatic approach, but remains pragmatic and case-driven.
• China and Russia have adopted a cautious stance, avoiding direct clashes with the U.S. but seeking influence in regional contexts.
• The Council's lack of cohesion has led to a focus on humanitarian aid rather than political solutions.
• The Council has failed to prevent the escalation of crises such as the Ethiopian conflict.

B. The Secretary-General

• Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has adopted a cautious approach to active conflicts, favoring quiet engagement over political confrontation.
• He has prioritized humanitarian efforts and has called for a "New Agenda for Peace" to address long-term global trends.
• Guterres is seen as popular and effective in maintaining relations with the Trump administration and promoting multilateralism.
• Despite his popularity, he is likely to remain circumspect in dealing with P5-related issues.
• UN officials on the ground have occasionally taken initiative when top-level engagement is lacking, such as in Libya.

III. Ten Challenges for the UN

1. Minimising Suffering in Afghanistan

• The Taliban's takeover has created a humanitarian emergency.
• The UN needs to ensure aid access and support for women's rights.
• The Security Council should maintain access for UN staff and avoid premature termination of UNAMA.
• Sanctions on the Taliban must not hinder humanitarian operations.
• The UN should explore a new aid coordination mechanism with the Taliban.

2. Working toward a Ceasefire in Ethiopia

• The Tigray conflict has caused a severe humanitarian crisis.
• The UN should push for a ceasefire and encourage dialogue between all parties.
• The secretary-general should urge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to negotiate with Tigray leaders.
• A political agreement could involve lifting the blockade of Tigray and restoring services.
• The UN must remain engaged despite the lack of response from Ethiopian leaders.

3. Keeping Libya's Peace Process on Track

• Libya's peace process, including a ceasefire and interim government, has made progress.
• However, the transition remains uncertain due to unresolved political and military issues.
• The UN needs to support mediation efforts and ensure the implementation of the ceasefire.
• Foreign fighters and military unification are ongoing challenges.
• The Security Council should provide more resources and support to the UN Support Mission in Libya.

4. Rethinking Peacemaking in Yemen

• The UN has made repeated mediation efforts, but progress has been limited.
• The current framework relies on a two-party agreement, which is outdated and ineffective.
• The war involves multiple regional actors, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE.
• A new UN special envoy, Hans Grundberg, is expected to bring a fresh approach.
• The UN must address the diverse political actors and ensure broader participation in peace talks.

Key Themes and Recommendations

• Humanitarian Aid: The UN must prioritize aid delivery in conflict zones, especially in Afghanistan and Ethiopia.
• Mediation and Peacebuilding: The UN should enhance its mediation efforts in Libya and Yemen, adapting to new political realities.
• Climate and Disinformation: Addressing climate security and disinformation in conflict zones is crucial for long-term stability.
• Sanctions and Engagement: The UN should carefully balance sanctions with humanitarian access and regional cooperation.
• Political Engagement: The UN needs to increase political assertiveness, particularly in situations where the Security Council is ineffective.

The UN remains a vital player in global crisis management, but it must adapt its strategies and increase political engagement to remain relevant and effective.