观察家研究基金会-新冠疫情之后的全球贸易版图：全球公司、投资者和决策者何去何从？（英文）-2021.5-24页_10mb

Summary of SPECIAL 133 REPORT 02: The Global Trade Map after Covid-19

Core Content

This report explores the evolving state of globalisation in the post-COVID-19 era, focusing on the implications for global companies, investors, and policymakers. It analyses the impact of rising protectionism, trade tensions, and the pandemic on global trade and economic structures, while also examining potential pathways for recovery and cooperation.

Main Points

1. Globalisation and its 'Discontents'

• Definition of Globalisation: The process driven by technology and the ICT revolution, enabling faster exchange of goods, services, capital, and information.
• Impact on Economic Growth: Globalisation has historically boosted national incomes and economic growth through manufacturing and industrial activity.
• Rise of Protectionism: Over the last half-decade, protectionist sentiments have grown, particularly in advanced economies like the US and the UK.
• Trade Imbalances and Tariffs: The Trump administration's focus on trade deficits with China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU led to increased tariffs, which disrupted global supply chains and spurred diversification strategies like 'China plus one'.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Post-pandemic, many countries are re-evaluating supply chain resilience, with a focus on reshoring critical goods and industries.
• Domestic Inequality: While globalisation has reduced inequality between regions, it has contributed to rising domestic inequality, particularly in the US, UK, and Italy, leading to political backlash.

2. Restricting Mobility

• Immigration Restrictions: Populist leaders have increasingly restricted immigration, citing protection of domestic workers.
• Economic Consequences: These restrictions have led to labor shortages in key sectors and increased food prices due to reduced migrant labor.
• Impact on Higher Education: Restrictions on immigration affect the availability of foreign students, which is crucial for universities reliant on international tuition.
• Skills Gap in the Digital Economy: Countries face a critical skills gap, prompting policy changes in labor migration and ICT education.

3. Trade in Services

• Continued Growth: Despite trade tensions, global trade in services continues to grow, with sectors like telecommunications, legal, and business services seeing expansion.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: Tourism and business travel are expected to rebound as vaccines are distributed and safety concerns subside.
• Remote Work and IT Services: The rise of remote work has facilitated the transmission of IT services across borders, leading to the concept of 'e-globalisation'.

4. Tensions in Technology Trade

• US-China Technological Divide: A 'technological Cold War' has emerged between the US and China, with diverging views on technology and national security.
• Regulatory Measures: The US and other countries have imposed restrictions on foreign investment, particularly from China, under the guise of national security.
• EU-China Investment Agreement: The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) aimed to enhance mutual investment, but has been shelved due to political tensions.
• Potential Decoupling: The risk of full decoupling between the US and China in the tech sector is a concern for investors and companies.

5. Financial Services Trade

• China's Openness: China has reduced its 'negative list' for foreign investment in sectors like financial services, attracting significant investment from US and European banks.
• Digital Platforms and Regulation: Efforts to regulate digital platforms, such as the News Media and Digital Platforms Mandatory Bargaining Code in Australia, are gaining traction.
• Need for Multilateral Frameworks: A unified approach to digital taxation and regulation is essential to avoid trade wars and ensure regulatory clarity.

Key Solutions and Agendas

1. The Digital Realm

• Need for Global Consensus: A multilateral legal framework to protect consumer interests in digital markets is still lacking.
• Regulatory Clarity: Initiatives like the EU's GDPR and California's CCPA provide a template for data protection, promoting regulatory consistency.
• Antitrust Measures: Both the EU and US are taking steps against big tech firms, indicating a potential alignment in regulatory approaches.

2. The Green Agenda

• Climate as a Policy Driver: Climate action is becoming a central component of economic policy, particularly in the developed world.
• Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): The EU's CBAM is a step towards a global "carbon club", which may have adverse effects on EMDEs.
• Green Investment and ESG Markets: EMDEs need to bridge the finance gap for the energy transition through long-term investments and risk-sharing mechanisms.
• Global Coordination: A just transition and global consensus on green recovery are necessary to avoid domestic political backlash.

3. Asia's Role in Global Trade

• RCEP Agreement: Asia has made significant strides with the RCEP, the largest trade agreement in history, involving China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries.
• Asia's Economic Strength: Asia remains a hub of fast-growing economies, productive labor forces, and dynamic consumer markets.
• Regional and Global Trade: The report suggests that Asia's role in shaping the future of global trade is growing, with increasing foreign investment in the region.

Conclusion

The future of globalisation is uncertain, but it is not dead. The report suggests that while there are challenges and growing protectionism, the digital and green agendas, along with the leadership of Asian economies, offer pathways for global cooperation and recovery. Policymakers, investors, and businesses must work together to navigate this new landscape and ensure that the benefits of globalisation are more equitably shared.