2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Suriname_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_54页_1mb

Summary of the 2011 Article IV Consultation with Suriname

Core Content

The 2011 Article IV Consultation with Suriname was conducted by the IMF staff, with discussions held in February 2011 and the staff report finalized on April 15, 2011. The consultation focused on economic developments, policy discussions, and the outlook for Suriname, particularly in the aftermath of a 20 percent devaluation of the Suriname dollar against the U.S. dollar in January 2011, which aligned the official rate with the parallel market. The report also includes an Informational Annex, a Public Information Notice (PIN), and a statement by the Executive Director for Suriname.

Main Points

Economic Developments

• Growth: Real GDP growth increased from 3 percent in 2009 to 4.5 percent in 2010, driven by higher commodity prices (gold, oil, alumina).
• Fiscal Position: The overall fiscal balance shifted from a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2007–08 to a deficit of 3.3 percent in 2009–10. Public debt reached 21.5 percent of GDP at end-2010.
• Inflation: Inflation rose sharply from 1.3 percent in end-2009 to 10.3 percent in end-2010, and further to 18.6 percent in February 2011 due to the devaluation and fuel tax increases.
• Exchange Rate: The devaluation brought the official exchange rate in line with the parallel market. A new exchange rate band (SRD 3.25–3.35 per US$1) was introduced.
• Reserves: International reserves reached 4.5 months of imports at end-2010, up from 5 months in 2009.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy: The staff supported the authorities' aim to reduce the overall fiscal deficit to 2 percent of GDP in 2011. They encouraged improving oversight of public utility companies and implementing targeted social support programs to mitigate inflation impacts.
• Monetary Policy: The staff recommended tightening monetary policy to contain inflation expectations, especially if the current measures prove insufficient. The central bank was advised to consider selling government paper or raising reserve requirements on local currency deposits.
• Exchange Rate Regime: The staff encouraged a move toward a more market-determined exchange rate regime in the medium term.
• Revenue Measures: The authorities introduced several revenue measures, including higher excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco, increased presumptive tax on casinos, reactivation of motor vehicle tax, and widening of the sales tax base and rate. A presumptive tax system for the informal gold sector was also proposed.

Key Challenges

• Inflation Expectations: The main near-term challenge is to bring inflation expectations back to single-digit levels, as the recent devaluation and fuel tax hikes have led to a sharp rise in inflation.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The authorities need to generate sustainable domestic revenues to replace declining grant disbursements, particularly from the Netherlands Treaty Funds, which are expected to expire by end-2012.
• Civil Service Reforms: The civil service wage reform (FISO) has significantly increased the central government wage bill, with a cumulative rise of 42 percent from 2008 to 2010. Efforts to streamline the civil service and increase efficiency have not yet materialized.

Key Information

Fiscal Indicators (2007–08 to 2009–10)

Exchange Rate and Devaluation

• Devaluation: The Suriname dollar was devalued by 20 percent in January 2011.
• Exchange Rate Band: Introduced as SRD 3.25–3.35 per US$1.
• Multiple Currency Practice (MCP): Abandoned for infant formula imports, with Fund approval still required for other MCPs.

Key Public Utility Companies

• Staatsolie: A major contributor to government revenue and exports, with 2010 revenue of US$149 million and exports of US$263 million. It is involved in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of crude oil and is investing in a new refinery and domestic distribution network.
• Public Water and Electricity Companies: Operating at a loss, with tariffs not adjusted for years despite rising costs. The authorities are seeking assistance to improve their management and financial sustainability.

Structural Issues

• Civil Service Efficiency: Despite wage reforms, progress on streamlining and increasing efficiency has been limited.
• Informal Gold Sector: A major source of unregistered income and environmental concerns. The government is introducing a presumptive tax system and increasing oversight.
• Debt Management: The authorities raised the domestic debt ceiling to 25 percent of GDP and lowered the foreign debt ceiling to 35 percent. The only remaining external debt arrears are with the U.S. government, estimated at US$32 million (0.9 percent of GDP).

Outlook and Risks

• Short-Term Outlook: Inflation is expected to remain high, with a risk of spiraling due to public sector wage increases and potential new consumption tax measures.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Staff expects real GDP growth to rise to about 5 percent in 2011, supported by continued strong commodity prices and investment in the mineral and energy sectors.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The authorities aim to reduce the non-mineral deficit by 4–5 percentage points of GDP over the medium term. They are working to establish reserve funds and seek technical and financial assistance to manage public finances effectively.

Conclusion

The 2011 Article IV Consultation with Suriname emphasized the need for fiscal discipline, inflation control, and structural reforms. The staff supported the authorities' efforts to stabilize the economy through a combination of monetary and fiscal policies, while encouraging a shift toward more market-determined exchange rates and improved public utility management. The report highlights the importance of sustainable revenue generation and fiscal sustainability in the long term.