2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bolivia_2018_Article_IV_consultation_Press_Release_and_Staff_Report_79页_3mb

Bolivia: 2018 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with Bolivia, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic performance and policy challenges. Bolivia had experienced strong growth and poverty reduction over the past fifteen years, with an average real GDP growth of 4.8% from 2004 to 2017. However, the country is now facing a more challenging economic environment due to lower commodity prices, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, and political uncertainties.

Main Economic Indicators

Main Views and Assessments

• Economic Performance: Bolivia's economy grew robustly, with real GDP growth projected at 4.5% in 2018, one of the highest in the region. Growth is supported by accommodative policies, a second wage bonus, and strong agriculture output.
• Challenges: The accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, combined with lower gas and minerals prices, have led to large fiscal and external current account deficits, reserve losses, and a sharp increase in public debt.
• External Competitiveness: The appreciation of the US dollar and high wage growth have negatively affected external competitiveness.
• Poverty and Inequality: The share of the population living in extreme poverty fell to 17%, and the Gini index was 44.6, indicating moderate inequality.
• Political Uncertainty: The 2019 presidential elections pose a significant risk to economic policy decision-making and stability.

Key Policy Recommendations

1. Fiscal Framework: Implement a rule-based fiscal framework anchored by a medium-term debt target. Reduce the non-hydrocarbon primary deficit by 1.4% of GDP annually to restore external balance and slow the growth of public debt.
2. Monetary Policy: Focus on price stability and preserve the nominal exchange rate anchor. Cease direct lending by the central bank to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and strengthen the central bank's independence.
3. Financial Sector Reforms: Remove credit quotas and interest rate ceilings to improve financial sector supervision and ensure lending decisions reflect intrinsic risks.
4. Structural Reforms: Shift the growth model from public redistribution of hydrocarbon revenues to private sector-led activity. This includes lowering tariffs on manufactured goods, freeing product markets, and overhauling labor market regulations.
5. Social Spending: Make social spending more progressive and target the most vulnerable groups.
6. Governance and Efficiency: Improve governance to bring more economic activity into the formal sector. Implement key measures to enhance the business climate.
7. Data and Transparency: Address weaknesses in data provision and strengthen transparency and anti-money laundering (AML)/counter-terrorist financing (CTF) frameworks.

Risks and Outlook

• Short-Term Outlook: Real GDP growth is expected to remain strong at 4.5% in 2018 and 4.2% in 2019. The fiscal deficit is projected to decrease slightly to 7.4% and 6.3% of GDP, respectively.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Growth is expected to moderate to 3.7%, reflecting limited macroeconomic policy impulse and lower productivity in the post-commodity boom period. The current account deficit is forecast to narrow slowly, but international reserves may fall below the Fund's adequacy metric by 2020.
• Main Risks: Political uncertainty, failure to discover new gas and mineral fields, and failure to freeze public investment. Upside risks include new discoveries, rapid project implementation, and higher hydrocarbon prices.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board commended Bolivia's economic growth and social progress but emphasized the need for policy adjustments to reduce internal and external imbalances.
• They recommended a focus on fiscal and monetary tightening, structural reforms, and improving the independence of the central bank.
• The Board also encouraged the government to enhance transparency and combat corruption through digital processes and legislative reforms.