20160708-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_15页_874kb

报告摘要

Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market review and analysis for Chinese and international stock indices, sector performance, and company-specific updates, particularly for Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (600549: SH) and Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co., Ltd. (000601: SZ). It also includes investment insights and analyst comments on various industries, with a focus on the express delivery sector and tungsten and rare earth products.

Market Indices Summary

Index	Closing Price	Daily Change	% Change
SSE Composite	2988.09	↓28.76	↓0.95%
SZSE Component	10611.80	↓8.78	↓0.08%
CSI 300	3192.28	↓17.67	↓0.55%
ChiNext	2239.00	↑5.08	↑0.23%
HSI	20564.17	↓142.75	↓0.69%
HSCEI	8534.79	↓66.20	↓0.77%

Market Volume: CNY 590.18 billion (USD 88.26 billion), down 11.1% from the previous session.
Performance: Losers outnumbered winners by 1574 to 943.
Key Insight: The market showed weakness due to lighter volume and a lower open, ending a five-day winning streak.

Sector Review Highlights

Military Sector: Strongest performer, with AVIC Aviation Engine Corporation (600893) and North Navigation Control Technology Co. (600435) rising 2.83% and 4.43%, respectively.
Computer Sector: DHC Software Co. (002065) gained 1.03%.
Resource Industries: Under selling pressure, with China Molybdenum Co. (603993) and Shandong Gold Mining Co. (600547) declining 4.84% and 3.48%, respectively.
Coal and Steel: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (600188) and Jiangsu Shagang Co. (002075) led the decline, down 3.15% and 1.98%.
Agriculture: Guangdong Haid Group Co. (002311) and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co. (002385) dropped 2.99% and 2.25%, respectively.

Daily Headlines

Foreign Exchange Reserves: Increased unexpectedly in June, partly due to the appreciation of the Japanese yen.
PBOC Gold Assets: Rose to 58.62 million ounces (about 1,823 metric tons).
Commentary Insight: The rise in forex reserves may indicate the PBOC has exited intervention.
Economic Data: If 2Q economic data is below expectations, interest rate cuts are on the table.
Credit Market Risks: Remain high in the second half of the year, with companies facing deteriorating profitability and cash flows.
Real Estate Market: Risks are increasing, with a potential short-term adjustment period in housing, especially in big cities.
China-UK Relations: UK Chancellor George Osborne met senior Chinese officials in London to strengthen trade ties.
New Energy Vehicle Development: China should focus on technology research for sustainable growth.
Steel Industry: The rebound in steel production is unsustainable, and long-term challenges like overcapacity persist.
HNA and CIT Leasing: HNA is shortlisted for the CIT plane leasing unit sale.

Latest Company News

Angang Steel (000898.SZ): 1H net income rose 93.6% y/y.
BYD (002594.SZ): Won bids valued at ~2 billion yuan.
Changan (000625.SZ): In talks with Tamil Nadu government on plant expansion.
Guangzhou Automobile (601238.SH): June sales reached 136,776 units, up 27.2% y/y.

Investment Highlights - Express Delivery Sector

Market Overview: The express delivery sector is witnessing a boom in assets securitization, but faces heavy competition, limiting valuation upside.
Yunda Express: Its backdoor listing suggests no significant difference in business model or market share compared to its peers.
Industry Trends: More big players are rolling out backdoor listing plans, increasing investor optimism.
Competition: Leading companies may see declining profitability due to homogenous services.
US Experience: Industry concentration from M&As is key to profitability improvement.
Outlook: With the big four (ZTO, STO, YTO, Yunda) now listed, large-scale M&As are unlikely in the short term. Heavy competition will limit valuation.
Long-term Outlook: Express delivery demand will continue to grow, especially with e-commerce and per capita volume. SF Express is expected to show more resilient earnings due to high fixed costs and fast industry growth.

Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd.

Performance:
- Operating revenue fell 20.73% YoY to CNY 3.499 billion.
- Operating profit dropped 23.5% YoY to CNY 125 million.
- Net profit attributable to the parent company rose 101.1% YoY to CNY 68.42 million.
- EPS: CNY 0.063.
Earnings Forecast:
- Net profit expected to reach CNY 260 million in 2016, CNY 401 million in 2017, and CNY 611 million in 2018.
Business Segments:
- Tungsten and Rare Earth Products: Earnings improved, with tungsten concentrate prices rebounding 8% and molybdenum 20%.
- Battery Material Business: Sharp growth, with profit rising 128% YoY to CNY 818 million.
- Real Estate Development: No project delivered in 1H 2016, leading to a CNY 19.6 million loss, expected to narrow in 2H 2016.
Investment Rating: Outperform (Maintained).
Potential Risks:
- Sharp fluctuations in tungsten and rare earth prices.
- Weaker-than-expected demand for ternary battery cathode materials.
- Slower-than-expected expansion of new businesses.

Company Analysis - Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co., Ltd.

Performance:
- Revenue increased 28.8% YoY to CNY 3.874 billion in 2016.
- Net profit rose 131% YoY to CNY 650 million.
Earnings Forecast:
- Revenue expected to grow to CNY 5.802 billion in 2018.
- Net profit forecast to reach CNY 934 million in 2018.
Business Focus:
- Centered on electric vehicle industry chain.
- New business expansion is expected to drive significant annual growth.
Investment Rating: Outperform (Maintained).
EPS Forecast:
- 2016: CNY 0.47
- 2017: CNY 0.56
- 2018: CNY 0.67

Key Financial Ratios (Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd.)

Ratio	2015	2016E	2017E	2018E
Gross Margin	16.7%	20.8%	22.6%	24.1%
Net Profit Margin	-8.5%	2.5%	3.2%	4.3%
ROE	-10.0%	3.9%	5.6%	7.9%
PE	-77.9	198.3	128.7	84.4
PB	7.8	7.7	7.3	6.6

Key Financial Ratios (Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co., Ltd.)

Ratio	2015	2016E	2017E	2018E
Gross Margin	30.9%	35.2%	35.2%	35.2%
Net Profit Margin	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%
ROE	7.4%	131.0%	19.9%	20.0%
EPS	0.47	0.56	0.67	0.67

Conclusion

The document highlights a mixed performance in Chinese and international markets, with the SSE Composite and HSI falling, while the ChiNext index showed a slight rise. The express delivery sector is under intense competition, with Yunda Express and others entering the market, which may limit future growth and profitability. Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co., Ltd. are both recommended for Outperform due to their strong performance in the tungsten and rare earth and electric vehicle sectors, respectively. Investors are advised to be cautious of supply and demand imbalances in express delivery stocks and potential risks in the tungsten and battery material markets.