2018年-世界发展银行全球_Thirsty_Energy___Modeling_the_Water-Energy_Nexus_in_China_191页_10mb

报告摘要

Thirsty Energy: Modeling the Water-Energy Nexus in China

Core Content

This report, Thirsty Energy: Modeling the Water-Energy Nexus in China, is part of the World Bank's Thirsty Energy Initiative, which focuses on integrated planning for water and energy resources. The report presents a detailed analysis of the water-energy nexus in China, emphasizing the interdependencies between energy production and water use, and evaluates the impact of various policies and climate change scenarios on this relationship.

Main Viewpoints

Water-Energy Nexus Importance: China's energy sector, particularly coal-based power generation, is highly water-intensive. The rapid economic development has led to increased energy demand, which is heavily reliant on coal, contributing to significant water use and pollution.
Policy Context: The Chinese government has implemented several policies to address water and energy challenges, known as the "3 Red Lines" policies, which include water use targets, water efficiency improvements, and water quality goals. These policies aim to reduce water withdrawals and improve the sustainability of the energy sector.
Energy Bases: The majority of new energy projects are concentrated in the four northern energy bases: Eastern Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Ordos (including Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Gansu), and Xinjiang. These regions are among the most water-stressed in China, despite having abundant energy resources.
Modeling Approach: The report uses the TIMES-ChinaW model, a multiregional energy system planning model that integrates water supply cost curves (WSCC) to better understand the economic and environmental tradeoffs in the energy-water nexus. The model reflects the 13th Five-Year Plan's trends, such as a slowdown in energy demand growth and a shift toward non-fossil energy sources.
Water Use Trends: The energy sector's water withdrawal is projected to decrease significantly from 29.83 billion cubic meters in 2015 to 20.96 billion cubic meters in 2030 (30% reduction), and further to 17.18 billion cubic meters in 2050 (42% reduction). This reduction is driven by the adoption of non-fossil energy sources like solar, wind, and nuclear, as well as the phase-out of less efficient coal plants.
Water Consumption: While water consumption initially increases due to the shift from once-through cooling to recirculating cooling systems, it later decreases as non-fossil energy sources replace coal. By 2050, energy sector water consumption is expected to drop to 7.84 billion cubic meters.
Climate Change Impact: Climate change is expected to have a relatively minor effect on China's overall water availability for the energy sector. However, localized droughts and floods may pose risks to energy infrastructure that are not fully captured by the model. Hydropower, which is mostly located in the "Other" region, is not fully analyzed in this context.
Policy Scenarios: The report evaluates multiple policy scenarios, including the impact of water cost and CO₂ reduction policies, coal reduction strategies, and the Non-Fossil Plan. It finds that the Reference scenario, which incorporates the NDC CO₂ mitigation targets, results in a 2.6% increase in energy system costs but significantly reduces water use and emissions.
Key Findings: The implementation of current and future policies is expected to lead to substantial water savings, reduced CO₂ emissions, and lower energy system costs. The integration of water supply costs into the energy model highlights the importance of economic considerations in shaping the future of China's energy-water nexus.

Key Information

Water Withdrawal: Reduces from 29.83 billion m³ (2015) to 20.96 billion m³ (2030) and 17.18 billion m³ (2050).
Wastewater Releases: Drops from 21.59 billion m³ (2015) to 11.26 billion m³ (2030) and 9.34 billion m³ (2050).
Water Consumption: Increases slightly to 9.7 billion m³ (2030) and then decreases to 7.84 billion m³ (2050).
Water Withdrawal Intensity: Falls from 8.42 m³ per thousand USD to 2.31 m³ per thousand USD.
Modeling Tool: TIMES-ChinaW is used to simulate the energy system, incorporating water supply cost curves and regional data.
Climate Change Effects: Predicted to have limited impact on overall water availability for the energy sector, but may affect specific regions through localized changes.
Policy Impacts: The adoption of non-fossil energy sources and dry cooling technologies significantly reduces water use and emissions.

Structure

Chapter 1: Summary of the report, including context, approach, and methodological observations.
Chapter 2: Justification for considering the water-energy nexus in China.
Chapter 3: Overview of water resources, supply, and demand in China.
Chapter 4: Analysis of energy resources, including coal, oil, gas, and renewables.
Chapter 5: Water modeling methodology and regional water supply cost curves.
Chapter 6: Energy modeling and the TIMES-ChinaW model description.
Chapter 7: Exploration of future water-energy nexus scenarios and policy impacts.
Chapter 8: Limitations and methodological observations of the initial analysis.
Chapter 9: Conclusion and next steps for sustainable planning.

Appendices

Appendix A: Water model details, including methodology and cost curve calculations.
Appendix B: Energy model description and data sources.
Appendix C: Energy data, including coal, oil, gas, and renewable potential, along with costs and water factors.

References

The report includes a comprehensive list of references and citations, providing a foundation for the analysis and supporting the methodology and findings.

Key Figures and Tables

Figures: Include maps of energy bases and water resources, as well as graphs illustrating water and energy trends.
Tables: Provide detailed data on energy bases, water supply and demand, and policy scenarios.

Box and Map

Box 1.1: Highlights the four northern energy bases and their significance in China's energy landscape.
Map B1.1: Visualizes the location of energy bases and other regions in China.

This report serves as a critical tool for understanding the complex interactions between water and energy in China and provides insights into the effectiveness of current and future policies in addressing these challenges.

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