IRENA-2019年可再生能源发电成本（英文）-2020.6-144页_31mb

Summary of Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) provides an in-depth analysis of the cost trends of renewable power generation technologies from 2010 to 2019. It highlights how renewable energy has become increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels and outlines the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewables.

Main Renewable Power Technologies and Their Cost Trends

• Solar Photovoltaics (PV):

  • The global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar PV fell by 82% from 2010 to 2019.
  • In 2019, the global weighted average LCOE for solar PV was USD 0.068/kWh.
  • In 2021, it is projected to fall to USD 0.039/kWh, representing a 42% decrease from 2019 levels.

• Onshore Wind:

  • The global weighted average LCOE for onshore wind decreased by 39% over the same period.
  • In 2019, the global weighted average LCOE was USD 0.053/kWh.
  • It is expected to fall to USD 0.043/kWh in 2021, a 18% reduction from 2019 levels.

• Offshore Wind:

  • The global weighted average LCOE for offshore wind dropped by 29% from 2010 to 2019.
  • In 2019, it was USD 0.115/kWh.
  • By 2023, it is projected to fall to USD 0.082/kWh.

• Concentrating Solar Power (CSP):

  • The global weighted average LCOE for CSP fell by 47% between 2010 and 2019.
  • In 2019, it was USD 0.182/kWh.
  • By 2021, it is projected to fall to USD 0.075/kWh, a 59% decrease from 2019 levels.

• Hydropower:

  • The global weighted average LCOE for hydropower increased slightly from USD 0.037/kWh in 2010 to USD 0.047/kWh in 2019.
  • Despite this increase, hydropower remains highly competitive, with 90% of all newly commissioned capacity in 2019 producing power at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired option.

• Bioenergy:

  • The global weighted average LCOE for bioenergy for power projects fell from USD 0.076/kWh in 2010 to USD 0.066/kWh in 2019.
  • It is a competitive and sustainable option, particularly in regions with abundant biomass resources.

• Geothermal:

  • The global weighted average LCOE for geothermal power projects in 2019 was USD 0.073/kWh.
  • Geothermal remains a stable and reliable source of renewable energy with low operating costs.

Key Findings

• Cost Competitiveness:

  • In 2019, 56% of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable power generation capacity provided electricity at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired option.
  • 90% of hydropower, 75% of onshore wind, and 2/5 of utility-scale solar PV also outperformed the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option.

• Economic Impact:

  • Replacing the costliest 500 GW of coal-fired capacity with solar PV and onshore wind could reduce annual system costs by USD 23 billion and cut CO₂ emissions by 1.8 gigatonnes, or 5% of global emissions in 2019.
  • It would also yield a stimulus worth USD 940 billion, or 1% of global GDP.

• Learning Curves:

  • Solar PV, CSP, and onshore wind have shown significant learning rates, with 36%, 38%, and 29% cost reductions respectively over the 2010-2019 period.
  • These deflation rates are much faster than those observed in consumer goods or household budgets.

• Auction and PPA Data:

  • Auction results indicate that the cost trends for renewables are accelerating, making them increasingly attractive for investment.
  • The 2021 projected average LCOE for solar PV is USD 0.039/kWh, and for onshore wind is USD 0.043/kWh.

• Investment Trends:

  • The cost of capital (WACC) plays a significant role in the LCOE of renewable projects.
  • The real WACC for OECD countries and China is 7.5%, while for the rest of the world, it is 10%.

• Environmental and Economic Benefits:

  • Renewables align with climate resilience, sustainable development, and long-term energy goals.
  • They are scalable, cost-effective, and have strong job creation potential.
  • The transition to renewables is seen as a viable economic stimulus strategy, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

Renewable power generation technologies, particularly solar PV and onshore wind, have demonstrated substantial cost declines over the past decade, making them more affordable than fossil fuels in many regions. These cost reductions are driven by technological advancements, economies of scale, and increased developer experience. The report underscores the economic and environmental benefits of investing in renewables, including cost savings, reduced emissions, and stimulating economic growth. As the cost of renewables continues to fall, they are becoming a key component of global energy systems and a viable solution for economic recovery and climate action.