2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Evidence_on_Productivity_Comparative_Advantage_and_Networks_in_the_Export_Performance_of_Firms_43页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Evidence on Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Networks in the Export Performance of Firms"

Core Content

This paper investigates the factors influencing the export probability of firms, including productivity, comparative advantage, and networking. It uses a multi-country, multi-industry firm-level dataset and constructs original measures of comparative advantage. The study is grounded in theoretical models from trade theory, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin model and the Melitz heterogeneous firms model, and integrates them to analyze how comparative advantage, productivity, and networks interact to affect a firm's likelihood of exporting.

Main Theoretical Framework

The theoretical model combines:

Heckscher-Ohlin framework: Which posits that countries export goods in which they have a comparative advantage.
Melitz model: Which highlights that firm productivity determines whether a firm can profitably export.
New-new trade theory: Which incorporates network effects in reducing informational barriers and facilitating trade.

The model assumes a two-country, two-good setting with two factors of production: skilled and unskilled labor. It defines equilibrium conditions such as successful entry, free entry, stationarity, and market clearing for goods and factors. The productivity cut-offs for export and production are derived based on fixed costs and trade costs.

Key Findings

1. Comparative Advantage and Export Probability

Firms in industries where the country has a comparative advantage are more likely to export.
This is because the relative price index for capital-intensive goods is lower in capital-abundant countries.
The model predicts that the probability of exporting is higher in industries of comparative advantage due to the specialization effect of the Heckscher-Ohlin model.

2. Productivity and Export Probability

The probability of exporting increases with firm productivity.
Only the most productive firms can profitably export due to fixed export costs.
This is consistent with previous empirical studies, such as Bernard and Jensen (1999, 2004), which have also found a strong link between productivity and export performance.

3. Networks and Export Performance

Networking plays a significant role in enhancing export performance.
Firms that benefit from foreign networks (e.g., financial linkages, joint ventures, foreign ownership), domestic networks (e.g., chamber of commerce, regulation), and communication networks (e.g., email, websites) are more likely to export.
Conversely, firms affected by state or labor networks (e.g., public control, unionization) have a lower probability of exporting.

Empirical Implementation

1. Data Description

The paper uses the World Bank Enterprise Survey, which includes firm-level data from 32 countries and 24 sectors.
Export dummy is constructed based on whether a firm exports.
Capital-labor ratios are calculated using capital in local currency (sum of net book value of "Machinery and Equipment (including Transport)" and "Land, Building and Leasehold Improvements") and employment (measured as the "Average Number of Permanent Workers").
Sales and capital are converted to dollar terms using IMF bilateral exchange rates for consistency and comparability.

2. Empirical Specification

The paper examines the effect of comparative advantage, productivity, and networking on the probability of exporting.
Country and industry fixed effects are included in the regression analysis.
Original measures of comparative advantage are derived from capital and labor endowments and sectoral characteristics.

Empirical Results

A positive relationship is found between comparative advantage and export performance.
Productivity is a strong determinant of export probability, with more productive firms more likely to export.
Networking is also found to be crucial for export success, with firms benefiting from foreign, domestic, or communication networks having higher export probabilities.
State or labor networks are associated with lower export probabilities.

Conclusion

The study contributes to the literature by:

Offering a novel empirical approach to test the Heckscher-Ohlin model.
Demonstrating that comparative advantage, productivity, and networking are all significant determinants of a firm's export probability.
Highlighting the importance of networks in reducing informational barriers and transaction costs in international trade.

Key Tables and Figures

Table 1: Percentage of firms that export by country.
Table 2: Percentage of firms that export by industry.
Table 3 and 4: The effect of comparative advantage on export probability.
Table 5 and 6: The effect of comparative advantage, productivity, and networks on export probability.
Figure 1: Capital/labor ratio by country.
Figure 2: Capital/labor ratio by industry.