国会预算办公室-海军2025年造船计划及其对造船工业基地影响听证会后的记录问题解答（英）-2025.4_6页_185kb

Analysis and Summary of Congressional Budget Office Responses

Cost Estimate Discrepancies

CBO's cost estimates for the Navy's 2025 Shipbuilding Plan differ from the Navy's due to three main reasons: differences in estimation methodologies, projections of ship size and complexity, and the Navy's cost analyses not always fully accounting for historical and real-world factors. For example, CPO's assessments often result in significantly different cost estimates, such as for the SSN(X) submarine, where CBO's estimate was higher due to perceived increases in size and capabilities compared to existing ships. Additionally, cost discrepancies stem from factors like inflation adjustment and the YRBM program, where the Navy retracted requests due to cost overestimations not aligning with builder bids.

Production and Schedule Concerns

CBO addresses concerns about production line breaks, which can increase costs for vessels like the YRBM barge. A steady annual procurement schedule is recommended to leverage learning and rate effects, potentially reducing costs. For the YRBM program, breaks in production may lead to cost escalations, and Congress authorized funds to support additional vessels if the schedule is maintained to avoid delays.

Metrics for Shipbuilding Industrial Base Health

CBO suggests key metrics to measure progress in the shipbuilding industrial base, including the production rate of Virginia-class submarines, workforce attrition rates (aiming for under 10% retention), average delivery rate for ships (e.g., from an expected 10 ships per year to 17 by mid-2030s), and construction timelines (currently longer than historical averages, indicating a need for efficiency improvements).

Unmanned Systems and Future Procurement

CBO notes that the 2025 shipbuilding plan lacks cost estimates and procurement numbers for unmanned systems, as this falls outside its scope. The Navy must determine future quantities and associated costs based on operational concepts through its own analyses, potentially involving unmanned systems to support fleet readiness, and CBO emphasizes the importance of specific military objectives for such determinations.