波兰_罗马尼亚和乌克兰的儿童服装_玩具和硬件（ATH）市场（英文版）_143页_5mb

Summary of the ATH Markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine

Core Content

The children's apparel, toys, and hardware (ATH) markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are experiencing strong growth and are following a similar development trajectory to Western Europe. These markets are expected to continue growing, with Poland, Romania, and Ukraine projected to catch up with more developed countries in terms of annual spend per child and disposable income.

Main Market Overview

• Market Growth: The ATH market in all three countries is forecast to grow at an accelerated rate, with Poland at 6% CAGR, Romania at 8%, and Ukraine at 9%.
• Market Size: The ATH market in Poland was valued at approximately EUR 2.1 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach EUR 2.9 billion by 2022.
• Market Segments: Apparel is the largest category, accounting for 58% in Poland, 63% in Romania, and 62% in Ukraine. Toys and hardware follow, with hardware being a key driver due to age structure.
• Online Sales: Online players, one-stop shops, and fashion chains are forecast to grow the most, driven by increasing internet penetration, omnichannel strategies, and customer demand for convenience and broad offerings.
• Gray Market: The decline of the gray and second-hand market is expected to create opportunities for growth in the ATH market over the medium to long term.

Key Players and Market Consolidation

• Poland: The market is relatively consolidated, with the top 5 players holding 42% of the market share. The two dominant players are Smyk (children's one-stop chain) and Allegro (pure online marketplace), each with around 12% market share. Other players include grocery chains and fashion chains.
• Romania: Moderately consolidated, with the top 5 players holding 27% of the market. Carrefour is the leading player with over 7% market share. The market is expected to consolidate further.
• Ukraine: Least consolidated, with the top 5 players holding only 14% of the market. Antoshka and Auchan are the dominant players, with 6% and 4% market share respectively. The market is expected to see more consolidation in the future.

Market Segment Development

• Growth Trajectory: Online players, children's one-stop chains, and fashion chains are expected to see the highest growth, with CAGR ranging from 11% to 19%.
• Decline of Traditional Players: Grocery chains and other traditional players are expected to lose market share due to decreased competitiveness in price, quality, and location.
• Store Expansion: The number of children's one-stop chain stores is expected to grow significantly in all three countries, particularly in smaller and medium-sized cities. The expansion of modern retail chains is supported by the growth of shopping malls and retail parks.
• Product Assortment: Chains with a high SKU range are leading the ATH market in terms of revenue. Independent shops are losing ground due to the broader product offerings and better placement of modern chains.

Key Trends and Customer Criteria

• Customer Preferences: Polish consumers prefer one-stop shop retailers with a strong online presence, a wide SKU range, and moderate prices. Key criteria include multichannel availability, one-stop shopping, wide SKU range, retail brand, and price.
• Omnichannel Importance: Click & Collect services are becoming increasingly important. Shopping malls are popular due to their multifunctional and cultural role, including dining, leisure, and entertainment options.
• Online Growth: Online sales are expected to grow faster than offline sales, driven by both e-commerce growth and changes in consumer behavior. However, the impact of Sunday retail restrictions may be offset by higher online sales.

Macroeconomic Drivers

• Real GDP Growth: Positive real GDP growth and decreasing unemployment rates are expected to drive disposable income, which in turn will increase annual spend per child.
• Birth Rate: Government-led pro-birth programs, such as the "500+" program in Poland, are expected to continue influencing birth rates and thus the size of the ATH market.
• Income Gaps: The income gap between large and smaller cities is narrowing, creating new opportunities for retail expansion in smaller cities.

Conclusion

The ATH markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are on a path towards Western European levels, with varying stages of development. Key growth areas include online retail, omnichannel strategies, and the expansion of modern retail chains into smaller cities. Consumer preferences are shifting towards convenience, broad product ranges, and strong retail brands, which are shaping the market dynamics and driving future opportunities for retailers.