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Summary of the Children's Apparel, Toys and Hardware (ATH) Markets in Poland, Romania and Ukraine

Core Content

The ATH markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are experiencing strong growth and are expected to follow a similar development path to Western European countries. Despite being behind in terms of annual spend per child and disposable income, these markets are forecasted to catch up with accelerated growth rates. The ATH market is growing due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, increasing disposable income, and government pro-family initiatives, especially in Poland. The number of children is expected to rise in Poland due to government-led pro-birth legislation, while it will decline slightly in Romania and Ukraine.

Key Market Trends

• Market Overview:

  • The ATH market in Poland was valued at approximately EUR 2.1 billion in 2017 and is expected to grow at an accelerated CAGR of around 7% to reach EUR 2.9 billion by 2022.
  • Annual spend per child is forecast to grow significantly at a CAGR of around 6% in Poland, 8% in Romania, and 9% in Ukraine.
  • Children's apparel is the largest category in the ATH market in all three countries, accounting for 58% in Poland, 63% in Romania, and 62% in Ukraine.

• Online and Omnichannel Growth:

  • The online sales channel is becoming increasingly important, with strong growth expected for both pure online players and omnichannel retailers.
  • Online sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 22% annually through 2022, outpacing offline sales due to increased Internet penetration and customer behavior changes.
  • Click & Collect services are gaining importance, especially for families with limited time.

• Retailer Preferences:

  • Consumers prioritize wide product assortment, one-stop shopping, and omnichannel availability.
  • A strong retail brand enhances perceived product quality, while price remains the most important purchasing criterion.
  • Marketing and brand awareness are also important, though not as critical as product variety and convenience.

• Market Segments:

  • One-stop chains are expected to grow rapidly, especially in smaller and medium-size cities.
  • Fashion chains are leading in children's apparel and are forecasted to maintain this position.
  • Online players are gaining market share due to their omnichannel strategies and convenience.
  • Independent shops are expected to decline due to the expansion of larger chains with broader product ranges.

Players in the Market

• Poland:

  • The market is relatively consolidated, with the top 5 players holding around 42% of the market.
  • Two dominant players are a children's one-stop chain (Smyk, 12% market share) and a pure online player (Allegro, 12% market share).
  • Other players include grocery chains and fashion chains, which generate lower revenues from ATH sales.

• Romania:

  • The market is moderately consolidated, with the top 5 players holding 27% of the market.
  • One large player is a grocery chain (Carrefour, over 7% market share), and four medium-size players include Auchan, eMag, and two children's one-stop chains (Jumbo and Noriel, each with around 5% market share).

• Ukraine:

  • The market is the least consolidated, with the top 5 players holding only 14% of the market.
  • Two dominant players are a children's one-stop chain (Antoshka, 6% market share) and a grocery hypermarket chain (Auchan, 4% market share).
  • There is significant room for growth and consolidation in the market.

Market Segment Development

• Online Players:

  • Expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5%–22% due to both total e-commerce growth and ATH market expansion.
  • Online players are likely to challenge the market share of traditional retailers through omnichannel strategies.

• Children's One-Stop Chains:

  • Forecasted to see the highest growth, especially in smaller and medium-size cities.
  • These chains are well-positioned to meet customer preferences for convenience and variety.

• Fashion Chains:

  • Expected to remain the leading segment in children's apparel due to their strong brand presence and focus on fashion.

• Grocery Chains:

  • Growth is expected to slow down, with most expansion happening in discounters rather than hypermarkets.

• Specialist Chains:

  • Market share is expected to erode as customers prefer broader product offerings from larger chains.

• Retail Expansion:

  • The growth of modern retail chains is supported by the increasing number of shopping malls and retail parks.
  • Shopping malls are becoming more popular, especially in big cities, due to their multifunctional and cultural role.

Key Opportunities

• Poland:

  • The narrowing gap in disposable income between large and smaller cities creates new opportunities for retail expansion.
  • The 500+ program and other pro-family initiatives are expected to continue influencing the birth rate and thus market growth.
  • The market is expected to see significant growth in the number of stores, especially for children's one-stop chains.

• Romania:

  • The market is expected to grow at a faster rate than Poland due to higher disposable income growth.
  • The number of children is forecast to grow slightly, especially in the 0–3 age group.
  • The market is expected to see growth in the number of shopping malls, particularly in smaller cities.

• Ukraine:

  • The ATH market is expected to recover after the 2014–15 crisis, with growth in annual spend per child and disposable income.
  • The market is at the beginning of the trend toward omnichannel and larger store formats.
  • The number of shopping malls is expected to increase, supporting the growth of modern retail chains.

Conclusion

The ATH markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are on a trajectory to catch up with Western European levels, driven by macroeconomic growth, pro-family policies, and changing consumer behavior. Key trends include the rise of omnichannel and one-stop shopping, the growth of online players, and the expansion of modern retail chains into smaller cities. These trends are expected to shape the future of the ATH market, creating opportunities for well-positioned players and a shift in market dynamics.