2025-06-04-Jefferies-再生元制药公司（REGN）_再生元制药（REGN）与百时美施贵宝（BMY）_为何我们对REGN的LAG3组合相较于BMY的差异化持怀疑态度_10页_1mb

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) Equity Research Summary

Overall Rating

• Rating: Buy ($487.86 current price, $804 price target, +65% upside potential)

Key Concerns

• The report is skeptical about Regeneron's LAG3 combo (high-dose rela + nivo) in first-line melanoma, as it does not show meaningful differentiation compared to Bristol Myers Squibb's regimen. While objective response rate (ORR) is higher (61% vs. 49%), progression-free survival (PFS) is worse (26.8 months vs. 33.3 months), and disease control rate (DCR) is similar or slightly inferior. Safety profiles are also poorer, with higher treatment-related adverse events and one death linked to the combo.

Financial and Investment Outlook

• LAG3 combo is modeled at a peak sales revenue of $402 million (risk-adjusted) or approximately $502 million (unadjusted), representing roughly one-fourth of the ~$2 billion metastastic melanoma market.
• The company may benefit from other areas such as Dupixent and Eylea, but downbeat views persist on the LAG3 opportunity and first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market.
• Overall valuation may reflect overhangs from pipeline, Eylea biosimilar risks, and high cash burn.

Other Highlights

• Jefferies analysts highlight that the high-dose rela + nivo regimen appears inconsistent with earlier regulatory feedback, raising questions about its clinical translation.
• ESG factors include commitments to corporate responsibility, access affordability, and GHG emission goals.
• Downside risks include commercial stiffness, regulatory delays, and clinical trial outcomes.