2013年-世界发展银行全球_Towards_Better_Expenditure_Quality___Guatemala_Public_Expenditure_Review_126页_20mb

Summary of the Guatemala Public Expenditure Review (May 2013)

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive review of public expenditure quality in Guatemala, focusing on development challenges, public finances, and performance in key sectors such as education, health, and road transport. It also addresses the broader context of budget process, public financial management (PFM), and procurement practices. The analysis highlights the need for institutional strengthening, improved transparency, and better targeting of public resources to achieve the goals of the Peace Accords and enhance social outcomes.

Main Viewpoints

• Guatemala's Development Context:

  • Guatemala has made progress toward democracy and institutional development since the 1996 Peace Accords.
  • Despite this, challenges persist, including weak governance, institutional instability, and social inequalities, especially in indigenous areas.
  • Economic growth has been weak, with an average real GDP growth of 1.2% per capita since 1990, significantly below Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) averages.
  • Structural reforms have improved the investment climate and trade liberalization, but tax revenues remain low.

• Public Finance Overview:

  • Tax revenue and public expenditure have increased since the Peace Accords, but Guatemala's tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the region (11% in 2011).
  • The government has not achieved all the targets set by the Peace Accords, particularly in reducing infant and maternal mortality.
  • Expenditure quality is a concern, especially in the social sectors, with issues of geographic targeting and technical efficiency.
  • Public expenditure is disproportionately allocated to non-poor areas, and municipal budgets are insufficient to address regional disparities.

• Sectoral Analysis:

Education

• Public education spending has increased from 2.6% to 3.2% of GDP since 2004, with most spending at the central level.
• Education spending is generally poverty-neutral, but secondary and tertiary education spending is regressive.
• There is no clear correlation between spending levels and student achievement, as seen in the case of San Sebastián and Tectitán.
• Technical efficiency varies significantly across municipalities, and efficient municipalities tend to cluster regionally.
• Demographic and socio-economic factors may be more important than expenditure levels in explaining educational outcomes.

Health

• Public health expenditure increased from 1.2% to 1.6% of GDP between 2008 and 2010, but remains low by international standards.
• The central government accounts for 96% of total health spending.
• There is significant geographic variation in health spending, with some departments receiving up to 18.8% of per capita expenditure.
• Health outcomes are weak in the western and northwestern regions, despite higher spending in some areas.
• Access to health services is limited for the poor, particularly in rural areas, and is linked to socioeconomic conditions.
• Infant mortality and under-five mortality are weakly correlated with health spending, but strongly correlated with malnutrition and poverty.

Road Transport

• Guatemala's road network is in poor condition, with 65–70% of paved roads in bad shape.
• The country allocates about 1.4% of GDP to road transport, which is relatively low compared to other LAC countries.
• Despite high investment in US dollars (US$495.5 million in 2010), per capita investment is below the regional average.
• Natural disasters significantly impact the transport sector, with financial needs often exceeding budget allocations.
• Budget overruns are common, with an average time overrun of 123% and cost overrun of 103% in reviewed projects.

Key Information

• Tax System:

  • Relies heavily on indirect taxes, especially VAT, which accounts for about 50% of total tax revenues.
  • Direct taxes, such as income tax, are hampered by small tax bases, exemptions, and evasion.
  • Tax reforms in 2012 are expected to modestly increase tax revenue (up to 1.3% of GDP by 2015), but institutional improvements are necessary for effective implementation.

• Public Expenditure Management:

  • The government has made progress in improving transparency and PFM, but the system still lacks comprehensive data.
  • The integrated financial management system (SIAF) and integrated accounting system (SICOIN) have limitations in providing detailed information on resource allocation at the sub-national level.
  • The need for better monitoring and evaluation mechanisms is emphasized to improve policy design and outcomes.

• Procurement:

  • Budget overruns and inefficiencies are common in public procurement, especially in the road sector.
  • The procurement system is often criticized for its lack of transparency and accountability.
  • There is a need to strengthen institutional practices and improve the efficiency of contracting processes.

Recommendations

• Tax Reforms and Transparency:

  • Strengthen tax administration and improve the quality of tax collection to ensure the effectiveness of tax reforms.
  • Secure approval of the transparency package, including reforms to civil service, public trust funds, and procurement systems.

• Expenditure Quality and Targeting:

  • Improve the targeting of public expenditures to areas with the greatest need, particularly in the social sectors.
  • Enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending through better monitoring and evaluation.

• Infrastructure Investment:

  • Increase investment in infrastructure, especially roads, to meet the country's needs and improve economic growth.
  • Leverage private sector participation to supplement government resources, given the limited public budget.

• Data and Information:

  • Develop better data systems to track resource allocations and sectoral outcomes at the sub-national level.
  • Improve the availability of outcome indicators to support more informed budget decisions.

• Sector-Specific Improvements:

  • In education, ensure that spending is aligned with performance outcomes and consider student performance in resource allocation.
  • In health, focus on improving access to services in poor and rural areas and link spending to health outcomes.
  • In road transport, address the high incidence of overruns and ensure that investment needs are met through more robust budgeting and contingency planning.