兰德-2017年兰德年度报告（英文）-2018.4-54页-6mb

2017 Annual Report Summary

Core Content of the Report

This 2017 Annual Report highlights RAND's 70-year legacy of providing empirical, nonpartisan, and objective research and analysis to support policy and decision-making. It showcases key findings from various research projects, emphasizing the importance of rigorous analysis in addressing complex societal and global challenges.

Main Themes and Key Findings

1. RAND's Mission and Values

• RAND was established as a nonprofit organization in 1947, originally part of the Douglas Aircraft Company.
• The organization remains committed to quality and objectivity, and its research spans defense, economic, and social issues globally.
• The Pardee RAND Graduate School is the world's foremost doctoral program in policy analysis, attracting top talent from around the globe.

2. Opioid Crisis and Treatment Outcomes

• Researchers found that three key quality measures in opioid treatment could significantly reduce mortality:
  • Psychosocial treatment (e.g., individual/group therapy)
  • Regular doctor visits
  • Limiting access to opioids and benzodiazepines
• These measures were effective in Veterans Affairs patients, reducing one-year death rates from ~6% to ~4%.
• The National Institute on Drug Abuse sponsored the research.
• Psychotherapy was shown to reduce mortality for all substance-abuse disorders, not just opioid addiction.

3. International Order and U.S. Leadership

• The post-WWII international order is at a turning point, with signs of cracks emerging due to:
  • Populist movements challenging traditional norms.
  • Economic inequality and geopolitical tensions.
• Researchers suggest that the U.S. and its allies must adapt to a more diverse and unpredictable global landscape.
• The U.S. must maintain its leadership in international institutions and alliances, as withdrawal could be the final blow to the system.

4. Russian Responses to NATO and U.S. Posture

• Russia is unlikely to escalate to armed conflict over NATO's moves in the Baltics, but domestic factors (e.g., economic struggles, nationalist movements) may lead to less predictable foreign policy.
• Researchers developed an analytical framework to assess how Russia might react, considering both domestic and strategic contexts.

5. Cyber Warriors in the U.S. Army

• The U.S. Army is investing in cyber warfare, but civilian job opportunities could lure specialists away.
• Researchers found that civilian jobs in information security offer higher pay, but specialty pay and retention bonuses could encourage specialists to stay in the military.
• The five-year service obligation is recommended to ensure the Army benefits from its investment in training.

6. Working Conditions in the U.S.

• The American Working Conditions Survey found that:
  • 75% of workers experience intense or repetitive physical exertion.
  • 35% encounter hazardous or unpleasant conditions.
  • 10% experienced bullying or harassment in the past year.
  • 5% of women reported unwanted sexual attention in the past month.
• Pay disparities exist, with men earning $54,000 and women earning $44,000.
• Positive aspects include supportive bosses, respectful colleagues, and opportunities for creativity.

7. Statewide Standards and Teacher Perspectives

• 90% of math and language arts teachers support state standards.
• However, only 30% support statewide tests.
• Teachers in Common Core states are more likely to oppose tests.
• Concerns include:
  • Tests being too difficult.
  • Inaccurate assessment of special-needs students.
  • Time consumption for test preparation.

8. Early Childhood Investments

• Early childhood programs (e.g., education, home visiting) have lasting benefits and significant cost-benefit returns.
• 102 out of 115 programs showed a positive impact.
• 29% of all outcomes measured showed improvement.
• Returns of $2 to $4 for every $1 invested were typical.
• These programs are especially important for children from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Key Clients and Grantors

RAND collaborates with a wide range of clients and grantors, including:

U.S. Government Agencies

• Department of Defense
• Department of Health and Human Services
• Department of Education
• Department of Homeland Security
• Department of Veterans Affairs
• Federal Communications Commission
• National Science Foundation

U.S. State and Local Governments

• Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Virginia
• City of Santa Monica, Chicago, New Orleans
• State of California, Michigan, New York

Non-U.S. Governments and Agencies

• Canada, Australia, Japan, China, Republic of Korea
• European Union, World Bank, World Health Organization, OECD, NATO

Foundations

• Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
• Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
• Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
• Pew Charitable Trusts
• Rockefeller Foundation

Universities and Research Institutions

• Harvard University, Johns Hopkins University, University of California, etc.

Professional Associations

• American Heart Association, National Education Association, etc.

Other Nonprofit Organizations

• United Way, Harlem Children's Zone, etc.

RAND Ventures

RAND Ventures explores visionary ideas and innovative approaches to solve complex policy challenges. In 2017, it supported:

• Projects that used existing methods in new contexts.
• Research that generated timely insights.
• Initiatives that highlighted novel ways to frame global challenges.

Suicide Prevention Insights

• The "watch for warning signs" message is incomplete.
• Researchers conducted psychological autopsies on 17 suicide victims in New Orleans.
• They found that warning signs are not always reliable and that suicide is a complex issue requiring more than just identifying risk factors.

Conclusion

The 2017 Annual Report underscores RAND's role in shaping policy through rigorous, objective research. It highlights the importance of data-driven analysis in addressing issues like the opioid crisis, international stability, working conditions, education standards, and suicide prevention. The report also reflects on the evolving landscape of global politics and the need for continued investment in research to support informed decision-making.