国际能源署-清洁能源投资趋势2021（英）-46页_21mb

Clean Energy Investment Trends 2021 Summary

Core Content

This report, Clean Energy Investment Trends 2021, analyses the evolving financial performance expectations and power procurement mechanisms in India's clean energy sector. It provides insights into the investment trends, debt and equity structures, and market dynamics affecting the renewable energy (RE) industry from July 2020 to June 2021.

Main Findings

1. Investment Trends

• Solar PV Investment: Solar PV capacity awarded in tenders dropped sharply to 2.6 GW in H1 2021 from 15.3 GW in H1 2020 and 21.2 GW in 2020 (including hybrid projects).
• Wind Investment: No new wind capacity was awarded in 2020, and only 1.2 GW was awarded in H1 2021.
• Market Dynamics: The slowdown in solar and wind capacity awards was attributed to a backlog of unsigned power sales agreements (PSAs) with SECI, which amounted to ~20 GW by the end of 2020.
• Investment Growth: Despite the disruptions, renewables investment in 2021 is expected to grow by over 50% compared to 2020.
• Market Concentration: Solar PV market concentration increased significantly in 2020 and H1 2021, with a few players securing large shares of the capacity awards.
• Tender Design Innovation: The RE sector has seen increased innovation in tender design to ease the integration of variable renewable power.

2. Debt Financing Trends

• Debt Ratios: Debt ratios for RE projects are close to 75% of project costs, indicating a strong reliance on debt financing.
• Loan Tenures: Median loan tenures for solar and wind projects are in the 16–18-year range.
• Debt Sources: Banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are the primary sources of debt for greenfield RE projects.
• Interest Rates: Project debt interest rates for solar PV and wind fell by ~100 basis points to a range of 9.25–10.00%, with even cheaper rates from banks at 8.75–9.50%.
• Debt Cost Differences: CPSUs (Central Public Sector Undertakings) have access to the lowest-cost debt, while market players pay a debt premium for projects with less creditworthy state off-takers.
• Debt Structure: Debt for RE projects includes floating-rate debt with periodic reset clauses, moratorium periods, and debt-service reserve accounts (DSRA).

3. Equity Returns and Risks

• Equity Share: Equity accounts for ~25% of project costs.
• EIRR Expectations: Equity internal rate of return (EIRR) for solar PV declined to 13.3% in H1 2021 from ~14.9% in 2020 (nominal terms).
• Tariff Volatility: The introduction of solar-wind hybrid projects led to record low tariffs (INR 2/kWh) in November-December 2020, but EIRR expectations have converged with plain vanilla tenders over time.
• Sensitivity to Module Prices: A 20% increase in solar PV module prices could lower equity returns by ~45%, highlighting the significant impact of capital cost volatility.
• Land and Transmission Challenges: Land-related conflicts and limited transmission capacity have inhibited the deployment of RE projects, especially in regions like Rajasthan and Gujarat due to the Great Indian Bustard conservation efforts.

4. Market Implications

• Acquisition Surge: Acquisitions of renewable power companies and assets reached ~USD 6 billion in 2021, indicating opportunities for scale and consolidation.
• Secondary Market: Access to a robust secondary market allows developers to recycle capital and reinvest in new projects.
• Investor Confidence: Acquisitions provide a way for developers to realise higher returns and offer an attractive route for new investors, such as financial investors or investment trusts.

Key Information

• Authorship: The report was authored by Arjun Dutt, Pablo Gonzalez, Nikhil Sharma, Lucila Arboleya, and Ruchita Shah.
• Series Editors: Gagan Sidhu and Michael Waldron.
• Collaboration: The report is a joint effort between the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
• Focus Areas: The report examines financial performance expectations, power procurement mechanisms, debt and equity structures, and market concentration in India's RE sector.
• License: The report is open access under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) license.

Conclusion

The 2021 report highlights the volatility and uncertainty in India's clean energy investment landscape, driven by tariff fluctuations, land and transmission constraints, and capital cost volatility. It underscores the importance of debt financing and the role of CPSUs and international IPPs in driving down costs and tariffs. The analysis also provides insights into equity returns, market trends, and the need for policy intervention to address sectoral risks and improve investment returns.