IMF-宏观经济冲击与冲突（英）-2023.3-42页_1mb

Core Research Question: The paper investigates the link between macroeconomic shocks, specifically changes in commodity terms of trade (ToT), and the intensity of conflict. It explores how negative ToT shocks affect conflict incidence and duration through their impact on aggregate income.

Methodology: The study utilizes a comprehensive commodity ToT index from the IMF, constructed using global prices weighted by trade shares. It employs a local projection method and data from sources like the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset to analyze effects on conflict events and fatalities.

Key Findings: A negative ToT shock significantly increases conflict events and fatalities, with effects persisting for several years. This impact is stronger in low-income countries (LICs) and fragile/conflict-affected states (FCS), and is amplified in countries with higher inequality and constrained fiscal capacity, supporting the opportunity cost and state capacity channels. Spillover effects to neighboring countries were also detected, with conflicts occurring 2–3 years after the initial shock.

Policy Implications: The results suggest the presence of a fragility trap, where worsening economic conditions fuel conflicts. Recommendations include pursuing inclusive growth to reduce inequality, managing sustainable debt levels, and providing targeted external financial support to mitigate economic shocks and support social safety nets.