2025-06-12-Jefferies-库雷瓦克（CVAC）_合理的交易_估值_大概率在2_-_3个月内完成_9页_1mb

USA Biotechnology

Equity Research

Company: CureVac N.V. (CVAC)
Date: June 12, 2025

Key Highlights

Valuation & Deal

• Rating: HOLD (Buy)
• Target Price: $5.00 (+23% from current $4.07)
• Deal with BioNTech (BNTX): Acquiring deal valued at $1.25B via a stock exchange, with a 55% premium to share price.
  • Transaction terms: Each CVAC share exchanged for ~$5.46 in BNTX ADSs (3M-VWAP ~$3.53).
  • Exchange ratio collar: 0.04318 (higher) to 0.06476 (lower), limiting volatility (~±20%).
  • Regulatory clearance required: Deal close expected within ~2-3 months, ahead of patent trial/s.

Risks & Catalysts

• Deal completion risk: High likelihood, but conditional on regulatory approvals (US and Germany).
• Patent litigation: Pending decisions in Germany (Jul '25) and US (Sept '25), but deal closure expected to self-resolve disputes.
• Catalysts:
  • July 1 '25: Patent infringement hearing (755B1 invalidity).
  • Nov '25: Possible acquisition closure.
• Price sensitivity: Target $7.00 if deal 100% certain; $1.00 if deal fails.

GSK Partnership

• Critical value driver: Up to ~€1B in milestones and royalty from flu/CV19 vaccine collaboration with GSK.
• Early pipeline limited value per se.

Financials

• Market Cap: $911.7M
• Cash: ~€440M, runway to 2028.
• Valuation Methodology: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), EV/Rev multiple.

Investment Thesis

• CureVac's mRNA platform shows broad applicability (Covid, flu, oncology).
• Acquisition by BioNTech integrates technology, pipeline, and IP synergies.
• Patent litigation resolution expected soon, positive for the deal.

Analyst Certification

• Views include clinical trial validation, commercial viability, regulatory hurdles, and financial projections for future performance.

takeaways

• CureVac trading near its all-time low; deal-driven valuation likely to boost price if closed.
• Patent litigation and regulatory delays pose risks.

End of Summary