2022-01-26-联合国-2021年经济初步概览（拉丁美洲和加勒比地区）_EN_37页_4mb

Principal Findings

The report highlights significant economic challenges and opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean. Key issues include deep asymmetries between developed and emerging economies, with advanced economies expected to return to pre-pandemic growth faster than emerging markets like the region, which project a slower recovery to 2025. Global growth and trade are expected to stagnate, driven by economic slowdowns in the US and China, and the region faces a less favorable external context with high inflation, low investment, slow employment recovery, and persistent social impacts from the pandemic.

Regional Context

• Growth: Latin America grew 6.2% in 2021, but projections show a sharp slowdown to 2.1% in 2022, making it one of the slowest recoveries. Inflation increased, led by food and energy prices, while investment and productivity remain structural problems hindering sustained economic recovery.
• Trade and Commodity Prices: Trade growth is expected to moderate in 2022, with commodity prices stabilizing after a strong rise in 2021. The region's export and import growth rebounded in 2021 but at a reduced rate.
• Employment: Job recovery is lagging, with only about 30% of jobs lost in 2020 recovered in 2021. Inequality worsened, with women facing a higher risk of job loss due to care burdens.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Fiscal measures in 2021 reduced deficits, but the region still has high debt levels. Central banks have responded to inflation with interest rate hikes, particularly in emerging economies, while using a mix of tools like reserve requirements and SDRs for liquidity.

Policy Recommendations

To address these challenges, the region must prioritize coordinated fiscal and monetary policies for sustained growth. Fiscal sustainability can be achieved by increasing revenues through tax reforms, reducing evasion, and shifting towards environmental and digital taxes. Monetarily, policies should expand beyond interest rates to include tools like reserve requirements and SDR utilization. Long-term investments are needed in strategic sectors such as clean energy, digital infrastructure, and social protection to boost productivity, employment, and gender equality, while multilateral debt management and liquidity support are crucial for fiscal space.