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CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 94 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World podcast features an interview with Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University and deputy director of the Center for Chinese International Strategic Studies. The discussion centers on China's approach to North Korea, particularly in light of the escalating tensions between North Korea and the United States under President Trump.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Escalating Rhetoric Between Trump and Kim Jong Un

• The exchange of harsh rhetoric between Trump and Kim Jong Un is seen as counterproductive.
• North Korea has historically used aggressive language against South Korea, but this time, it targeted the U.S., which is a significant shift.
• Cheng argues that such language can distract from the real issue: North Korea's violations of UN Security Council resolutions and its nuclear and missile developments.

2. Impact of Trump's Provocative Language on Kim Jong Un

• Cheng believes that Trump's strong language does not necessarily provoke North Korea to use nuclear weapons.
• However, it may signal a more aggressive U.S. stance, which could pressure North Korea to act preemptively.
• The U.S. approach is seen as more direct and less diplomatic compared to China's, which has been cautious and incremental.

3. Chinese Public and Academic Debate

• There is a growing divide in China over how to handle North Korea.
• Professor Jia Qingguo's article highlights three key concerns:
  • North Korea's nuclear program is a threat to China's security.
  • U.S. preemptive strikes against North Korea could endanger China.
  • South Korea and Japan may develop their own nuclear programs, further destabilizing the region.
• Jia calls for contingency talks between the U.S. and China, which has sparked criticism and personal attacks on him.

4. China's Relationship with North Korea

• Cheng supports Jia's view that the relationship between China and North Korea is no longer based on ideology or friendship but on national interest.
• He notes that China is no longer in need of North Korea as a buffer zone due to its growing economic and military power.
• The relationship has become more complicated and less cooperative over time, with reduced trade and communication.

5. China's Policy Shifts and Sanctions

• China's policy toward North Korea has seen incremental changes, such as supporting UN sanctions and imposing a cap on oil imports.
• These changes, though small, signal a shift from past inaction.
• China is not opposed to further sanctions, including a total oil ban, but is cautious about the broader implications.

6. North Korea's Strategic Calculus

• North Korea views its nuclear program as a deterrent against U.S. military threats, not as a bargaining chip.
• It is pushing forward with its nuclear and missile development, aiming to achieve a reliable nuclear deterrent.
• The U.S. and South Korea are seen as moving toward a more confrontational stance, while China continues to seek dialogue.

7. The Concept of "Red Lines"

• Cheng argues that China does not have a clear red line in its approach to North Korea.
• The absence of a red line suggests a preference for incremental pressure over abrupt measures.
• He warns that Trump's aggressive tactics could lead to a trade war or other unintended consequences.

8. Recommended Path Forward

• Cheng suggests a dual approach: applying pressure to increase the cost of North Korea's nuclear program and maintaining open channels for dialogue.
• He emphasizes the importance of using both "sticks" and "carrots" in negotiations.
• The goal is to change the cost-benefit equation in North Korea's mind and encourage a political shift.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complexity of China's foreign policy toward North Korea, reflecting both internal debate and external pressures. While China has not fundamentally changed its approach, it has shown a willingness to adapt through incremental measures. The relationship with North Korea is increasingly viewed through the lens of national interest rather than ideological solidarity, and the path forward involves a balance of pressure and diplomacy.