2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Philippines_Selected_Issues_30页_884kb

Summary of "Philippines: Selected Issues"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Philippines' economic vulnerabilities and policy responses in the context of global economic conditions and monetary policy effectiveness. It is divided into three main sections: Growth Spillovers from the Global Economy, Interest Rate Transmission, Lending Conditions, and Monetary Policy, and Building Inclusive Growth in the Philippines. The analysis is based on data up to January 18, 2012, and uses empirical methods such as Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) and an extended Global Projection Model (GPM) to evaluate economic linkages and policy implications.

Main Findings and Key Points

I. Growth Spillovers from the Global Economy to the Philippines

• External Linkages: The Philippines is a small open economy, heavily influenced by global trade and financial flows.
• Trade: Exports and imports have remained around 50% of GDP over the past decade, with trade being a key transmission channel.
  • Exports have shifted from garments to electronics and agri-business.
  • The U.S. share of exports has declined from ~30% in 2000 to ~15% in 2010, while China's share has increased significantly.
  • The Philippines has developed stronger supply chain ties with China and the Euro Area, particularly in the electronics sector.
• Remittances: Remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) are equivalent to ~10% of GDP, with the U.S. as the largest source.
  • Remittances are more resilient than exports, showing gradual declines rather than sharp ones.
• Capital Flows: Non-FDI capital flows, especially portfolio inflows, have grown in importance, while FDI flows have remained stable.
• Empirical Analysis:
  • External growth shocks have a larger impact on Philippine growth than financial shocks.
  • A 1 percentage point negative external growth shock leads to a decline in Philippine growth by ~1 percentage point after four quarters.
  • Trade is the most important transmission channel for growth.
  • Global risk aversion shocks have a smaller impact on growth, but still affect it through capital flows and remittances.
• Scenario Analysis:
  • A downside global scenario (e.g., weaker U.S. and Euro Area growth) would lead to a drop in Philippine GDP growth by ~1.5 percentage points in 2012 and 2013.
  • The output gap becomes negative, contributing to lower inflation, and the fiscal balance deteriorates due to automatic stabilizers.
  • The current account balance initially falls but later rises as domestic demand weakens.

II. Interest Rate Transmission, Lending Conditions, and Monetary Policy

• Interest Rate Channels: The effectiveness of the interest rate and credit channels is limited due to the weak transmission of policy rates to market rates.
• Lending Conditions:
  • The spread between T-bill and policy rates is a better proxy for lending conditions than the policy rate itself.
  • T-bill rates have a stronger influence on lending rates than policy rates, as shown by the BVAR analysis.
• Policy Implications:
  • The central bank's ability to sterilize liquidity is constrained, limiting the impact of policy rates on the broader financial system.
  • The spread between T-bill and policy rates has persisted and is more volatile, indicating market imperfections or liquidity preferences.
  • Lending conditions significantly affect the output gap and inflation dynamics.
• GPM Model:
  • The GPM model is extended to incorporate global commodity prices and lending conditions.
  • Global fuel and food prices have a strong impact on headline inflation, with significant second-round effects.
  • The coefficient on the deviation of headline inflation from core inflation is 0.67, indicating a high degree of second-round inflation effects.
  • The spread between T-bill and policy rates has a larger impact on the output gap (0.12) than the policy rate (0.06).

III. Building Inclusive Growth in the Philippines

• Inclusive Growth:
  • The document emphasizes the need to strengthen inclusive growth, particularly in light of economic vulnerabilities.
  • Inclusive growth is linked to poverty reduction, economic efficiency, and social development indicators.
• Key Indicators:
  • Poverty headcount ratio has decreased, but inequality remains high, as shown by the Gini Index.
  • Public spending on education and health has increased, but the degree of inclusiveness is still limited.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Investment in education and health is crucial for improving inclusiveness.
  • Structural reforms in the labor market and financial system are needed to enhance growth and reduce inequality.

References

• Duttagupta, R., and N. Barrera, 2010, “The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?” IMF Working Paper No. 10/5.
• Osterholm, P., and J. Zettelmeyer, 2008, “The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 55, No. 4.
• Peiris, S. J., 2011, "Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis System for the Philippines," in Philippines—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/58.
• Porter, N., 2010, "Price Dynamics in China," IMF Working Paper No. 10/221.
• Villani, M., 2009, "Steady State Priors for Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 24, No. 4.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure I.1: Export Shares by Destination (U.S., China, etc.)
• Figure I.2: Impulse Responses to an External Growth Shock
• Figure I.3: Impulse Responses to a Global Risk Aversion Shock
• Figure I.4: Deviations from Baseline in Downside Scenario
• Figure II.1: Policy and Market Rates
• Figure II.2: Lending Rate and Credit Growth
• Figure II.3: Interest Rate Transmission and Lending Rate
• Figure II.4: Determinants of Spread Between T-Bill and Policy Rate
• Figure II.5: Lending Rate and Credit Growth
• Table II.1: Dynamics of the Deviation of Market Rates from the Policy Rate

Conclusion

The document highlights the importance of understanding global economic linkages and the limitations in the transmission of monetary policy in the Philippines. It recommends that policymakers should consider lending conditions and structural factors when assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy and its impact on growth and inflation. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for inclusive growth strategies to ensure that economic benefits are broadly shared across different segments of the population.