2025-06-13-Jefferies-以防你错过..._11页_224kb
报告摘要
Summary of Jefferies European Research Report: June 14, 2025
Overview
- Provides a selection of most read European research, including:
- In-depth analysis of Glencore's portfolio and valuation.
- Refresh of Global Best Ideas list.
- Revisit of implications for Europe from a structurally weaker USD.
- Highlights important research from the US and Asia.
- Details upcoming Access events.
Key Research Areas
- Glencore: Focuses on the path to significant re-rating, asset-level deep-dive, and portfolio restructuring optionality. Pricing is NPV-based, with key risks including macro, operational, and geopolitical issues.
- Global Best Ideas: Organized into three themes: Secular Innovation, Structural Change, and Product Cycles. Includes high-conviction, Buy-rated stocks.
- EMEA Picks: Shortlist of large-cap names; Accor is highlighted as a Buy.
- USD Devaluation: Discusses impacts on Consumer and Travel sectors, noting positive effects of capacity improvements in travel.
- Beauty & Wellness: Covers trends from Paris meetings, highlighting key topics like US consumer behavior, destocking, and AI.
- Specialized Reports: Covers LiDAR in AI/driving, US Healthcare (MFN regulation impact), and US Lodging-Cruise model fusion.
Event Highlights
- Energy Expert Call: June 26th, explores OPEC+ policy, geopolitical risks, and refining margins with Dr. Amrita Sen.
- Autonomous Trucks Discussion: June 30th, focuses on Aurora's technology, business case, and regulatory challenges.
- Virtual C-Suite Series: Ongoing from May-Sept 2025, featuring leaders in 'Structural Winners' companies.
Valuations and Price Targets
- Accor (BUY: €43.26): Based on DCF; risks include declining RevPAR and asset sales challenges.
- Glencore (BUY: £291.70): NPV-based price target; risks macro, operational and geopolitical.
- Hesai (BUY: $20.07): LiDAR market outlook from 2030; risks lower adoption in China and humanoid robot design.
- RoboSense (BUY: HK$32.00): Similar market outlook; risks tied to LiDAR adoption and robotic designs.
- UBS (BUY: CHF26.10): SOTP valuation; risks include macro weakness and integration challenges.
Analyst Notes
- Prioritizes recommendations based on conviction, differentiated analysis, and investment themes.
- Jefferies analysts' compensation may relate to firm performance, including investment banking.
Important Disclosures
- Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships.
- Analysts may not hold FINRA registration in some regions (e.g., Jefferies International Limited).
- Distribution is restricted for certain markets to institutional/institutional investors only.
- Regulatory disclosures per jurisdiction (e.g., U.S., UK, EMEA, Asia).
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