20160429-DBS_Group-How_resilient_are_suburban_malls__31页_882kb

报告摘要

Summary of "How Resilient Are Suburban Malls?"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the resilience of suburban malls in the context of a slowing retail market and economic downturn. It also includes valuation data for property developers and investors, as well as REITs, along with insights into residential market trends and upcoming projects in Hong Kong.

Main Points

Suburban Malls

Resilience: Suburban malls are showing resilience, with non-discretionary spending holding up well, especially in food and beverage and supermarket sectors.
Rental Reversion: Rental reversion for Fortune REIT's suburban mall portfolio remains positive but is moderating, indicating a mixed outlook for retail tenants.
Discretionary Spending: Electronic goods and fashion retailers are facing sales pressure due to reduced discretionary spending by local shoppers.
Link REIT: Link REIT has achieved better-than-average sales growth for F&B tenants, attributed to its tenant mix optimization efforts.
Property Enhancement: To drive rent growth, property enhancement works are needed. Sunlight REIT is an example, reconfiguring space to boost rents and retail offerings.

Valuation Overview

Property Developers:
- The property developer index shows varying performance relative to the Hang Seng Index (HSI).
- Companies like Cheung Kong Property, Henderson Land, and Sino Land are recommended as "Buy" with positive future earnings growth and moderate discounts to NAV.
- Some developers, like K Wah International, show a significant discount to NAV, indicating potential undervaluation.
Property Investors:
- Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties are also recommended as "Buy" with similar valuation trends.
- HK Land, despite being denominated in USD, is also recommended as "Buy."
REITs:
- REITs like Fortune REIT and Link REIT are recommended as "Buy" with positive yield growth.
- The price-to-book value (P/BV) and gearing ratio are important metrics, with most REITs showing reasonable valuations.
- Some REITs, like New Century REIT, have lower yields and are not recommended for purchase.

Key Information

Valuation Table - Property Developers

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recom	PE FY16 x	PE FY17 x	Dec-16 NAV (HK$)	Disc. to Dec-16 NAV %	Yield FY16 %	Yield FY17 %
Cheung Kong Property	1113 HK	Dec	209	54.05	57.00	Buy	11.0	11.5	95.0	(43)	2.9	2.9
Henderson Land	12 HK	Dec	165	50.00	52.00	Buy	16.7	16.3	86.6	(42)	2.9	2.9
K Wah Int'l	173 HK	Dec	11	3.80	3.47	Buy	8.1	7.0	9.9	(62)	4.5	4.5
Kerry Props	683 HK	Dec	31	21.35	24.60	Buy	8.3	7.5	70.2	(70)	4.2	4.2
Lai Sun Dev	488 HK	Jul	2	0.116	0.148	Buy	11.8	10.3	0.6	(80)	2.2	2.2
MTR Corp	66 HK	Dec	228	38.80	39.15	Buy	26.2	24.6	45.0	(14)	8.4^	8.4^
New World Dev	17 HK	Jun	73	7.88	7.80	Buy	10.3	8.9	19.5	(60)	5.6	5.6
Sino Land	83 HK	Jun	77	12.48	12.54	Buy	15.3	15.4	22.8	(45)	4.2	4.2
SHKP	16 HK	Jun	286	99.00	115.90	Buy	12.7	13.1	193.1	(49)	3.7	3.7
Tai Cheung	88 HK	Mar	4	5.90	7.51	Buy	9.4	10.5	18.8	(69)	5.1	5.1
Wheelock & Co.	20 HK	Dec	75	36.85	35.45	Buy	7.2	7.2	47.3	(22)	3.1	3.1
Wing Tai Properties	369 HK	Dec	6	4.70	5.46	Buy	15.4	14.6	15.6	(70)	3.2	3.2

Valuation Table - Property Investors

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recom	PE FY16 x	PE FY17 x	Dec-16 NAV (HK$)	Disc. to Dec-16 NAV %	Yield FY16 %	Yield FY17 %
Great Eagle	41 HK	Dec	21	31.45	24.50	Hold	12.7	12.5	70.0	(55)	2.4	2.4
Hang Lung Props	101 HK	Dec	71	15.76	15.45	Hold	15.9	14.9	34.3	(54)	4.8	4.8
HK Land	HKL SP	Dec	15	6.41	8.16	Buy	17.6	16.3	11.7	(45)	3.0	3.1
Hysan Dev	14 HK	Dec	36	34.70	36.15	Buy	15.8	15.5	65.7	(47)	3.8	3.8
Swire Props	1972 HK	Dec	123	20.95	26.00	Buy	18.6	17.0	40.0	(48)	3.2	3.4
Wharf	4 HK	Dec	131	43.25	44.15	Hold	11.1	10.2	80.3	(46)	4.4	4.4

Valuation Table - REITs

REIT	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$m)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recom	Yield FY15F %	Yield FY16F %	Yield FY17F %	Price/BV (x)	Gearing Ratio %
Champion REIT	2778 HK	Dec	24,069	4.16	4.59	Buy	4.8	5.1	5.1	0.50	22.1
Fortune REIT	778 HK	Dec	16,262	8.59	9.21	Buy	5.5	5.6	5.8	0.67	30.1
Hui Xian REIT	87001 HK	Dec	16,845	3.12	n.a.	NR	8.9	9.0	9.3	0.59	17.6
Jinmao Investments	6139 HK	Dec	8,880	4.44	4.93	Hold	9.8	8.4	8.3	0.98	71.0
Langham Hospitality	1270 HK	Dec	5,307	2.58	n.a.	NR	9.7	9.2	8.7	0.50	38.7
New Century REIT	1275 HK	Dec	2,536	2.70	n.a.	NR	12.0	n.a.	n.a.	0.79	33.0
Prosperity REIT	808 HK	Dec	4,397	3.05	3.12	Buy	5.8	5.8	5.9	0.62	27.6
Regal REIT	1881 HK	Dec	6,417	1.97	n.a.	NR	7.8	8.6	9.0	0.47	36.6
Spring REIT	1426 HK	Dec	3,784	3.37	n.a.	NR	7.9	7.6	7.1	0.54	33.5
Sunlight REIT	435 HK	Jun	6,727	4.12	4.38	Buy	5.3	5.8	5.9	0.55	23.3
Link REIT	823 HK	Mar	107,895	48.10	48.50	Buy	3.8	4.2	4.4	0.89	16.9
Yuexiu REIT	405 HK	Dec	12,260	4.31	n.a.	NR	6.5	7.3	7.0	0.72	32.0

Upcoming Projects

Pre-sale Consent Granted (Mar 2016)

Project	Developers	Location	No. of Unit
Mantin Heights	Kerry Properties	Kln	1,429
One Homantin	Wheelock & Co.	Kln	561
The Grampian	Hanison	Kln	14
Ocean Wings	SHKP	NT	628

Pre-sale Consent Pending Approval (Mar 2016)

Project	Developers	Location	No. of Unit
SIL 634	Nan Fung Group	HK	470
IL 9027 RP	SHKP	HK	355
RBL 1190	Nan Fung Group	HK	54
NKIL 6526	K Wah Int'l	Kln	924
NKIL6525	K&K Property	Kln	822
One Kai Tak II	COLI	Kln	624
One Kai Tak I	COLI	Kln	545
The Ascent	Paliburg/Regal Hotels	Kln	157
93 Pau Chung Street	Lai Sun Development	KL	209
City Hub	Chevailer Consortium/URA	Kln	175
FSSTL 255	Sino Land	NT	296
Lot 1180 in DD 215	Sino Land	NT	286
The Woods	Private Developer	NT	6
STTL 599	Kam Wah Holdings/Wang On Group	NT	640
La Cresta	HKR/Nan Fung Group	NT	61
STTL 566	SHKP	NT	59
TKOKL 126	Wheelock & Co.	NT	926
TKOTL 112	Wheelock & Co.	NT	804
TMTL 427	Wheelock & Co.	NT	460

Key Trends and Insights

Residential Market:
- Transaction trends show activity in both primary and secondary markets, with varying levels of volume and value.
- Factors influencing demand and supply include real GDP growth, unemployment rate, and effective mortgage rates.
- Housing affordability and rental yields are also highlighted, with mass market projects showing steady performance.
Retail Market:
- Suburban malls are not immune to the retail market downturn, but non-discretionary spending remains stable.
- Property enhancement is crucial to drive rental growth and attract better tenants.
- F&B and supermarket tenants are performing well, while discretionary spending is declining.
Valuation and Performance:
- Property developers and investors are showing mixed performance relative to the HSI.
- REITs are recommended based on their yield and valuation metrics.
- Discounts to NAV and price-to-book value ratios are used to assess investment potential.

Conclusion

Suburban malls are showing resilience due to stable non-discretionary spending, particularly in the F&B and supermarket sectors. However, they face challenges with discretionary spending and the need for property enhancement to sustain rental growth. REITs and property developers are evaluated based on their valuation metrics, with several recommended as "Buy" due to positive outlooks and reasonable discounts to NAV. Upcoming projects indicate continued development activity in key locations across Hong Kong.

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