20121231-IRENA-Concentrated_Solar_Power_Technology_brief_32页_679kb

报告摘要

Report Summary: Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Analysis

Introduction to IRENA and IEA-ETSAP

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) is an intergovernmental organization dedicated to promoting renewable energy, aiming to increase the adoption and sustainable use of renewable energy sources. IEA-ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) supports global energy scenario analysis through collaborative modeling. This report focuses on CSP as a renewable energy technology, highlighting its role in reducing CO2 emissions and enhancing energy security.

CSP Technology Overview

CSP plants use mirrors to concentrate sunlight, generating heat for electricity or industrial applications. The four main variants are:

Parabolic Trough (PT): Most mature technology, using synthetic oil or molten salt for heat transfer. Dominates installed capacity (ca. 90%) and is suitable for large-scale centralized power generation.
Solar Tower (ST): Achieves higher temperatures (up to 565°C) and offers potential cost and efficiency improvements with research ongoing.
Fresnel Reflector (FR): Lower-cost alternative to PT, but less mature; optical efficiency is lower, but installation costs may be reduced.
Solar Dish (SD): Modular and efficient for distributed generation but not yet commercially scaled.

CSP provides dispatchable electricity with thermal storage, integrates with existing fossil fuel plants, and has applications in water desalination, cogeneration, and enhanced oil recovery. Advantages include high-capacity factors, solar multiple flexibility, and carbon-free operation, though challenges include high water needs and capital costs.

Current Status and Deployment

As of 2012, global installed CSP capacity was ~2 GW, with significant growth driven by policies and incentives in regions like the Middle East, North Africa, the United States, Spain, and Australia. Key deployments include large-scale projects like the Shams 1 plant in the UAE and Godawari in India. Deployment challenges involve policy support, as CSP is not yet cost-competitive without incentives, and variability depends on Direct Normal Irradiances (DNI).

Performance and Costs

Efficiency and Capacity Factors: PT plants have efficiencies of 14-16% and capacity factors of 25-53%, while ST systems can reach up to 16-28% efficiency and 25-79% capacity factors with storage.
Investment Costs: High initial investment (USD 5,500-8,000/kW for PT without storage). Costs are dominated by the solar field (~35-49% for PT, higher for ST) and can increase with thermal storage. Dry cooling adds ~10% to costs.
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE): Current LCOE ranges from USD 200-290/MWh for PT and USD 170-280/MWh for ST. Projections indicate reductions to USD 180-310/MWh (2020), driven by technology learning and economies of scale.
Cost Breakdown: Investment costs (84%), O&M (~10-11%), and financing play significant roles. Solar field is the largest component.

Potential and Barriers

Future Growth: Projections (IEA, ESTELA) suggest global capacity could reach 2-0.5 GW or extend to 147 GW by 2020 and 337 GW by 2030. By 2050, CSP could supply up to 9.5% of global electricity.
Key Regions: North Africa, Middle East, India, and the US could lead production; Europe could be a major importer via HVDC transmission.
Barriers: High capital costs, water scarcity (requiring dry cooling options), technology maturity level, and the need for policy incentives. Opportunities include cost reductions through technology advances, industrial learning, and economies of scale.