IMF-全球金融稳定报告：先发制人的脆弱性遗产（英文）-2021.4-92页_6mb

Global Financial Stability Report Summary (April 2021)

Core Content

The April 2021 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) highlights the risks to global financial stability arising from the asynchronous and divergent recovery following the pandemic. It outlines the vulnerabilities in the financial system, the impact of policy measures, and the role of macroprudential tools in mitigating these risks.

Main Themes and Key Findings

1. Global Financial Stability Risks

• The global economy is facing high risks of financial instability due to the asynchronous recovery between advanced and emerging markets.
• Unprecedented policy support has helped stabilize financial conditions, but may lead to structural vulnerabilities if not managed carefully.
• Rising interest rates, particularly in the U.S., could lead to a repricing of risk and tightening of financial conditions, which may exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

2. Nonfinancial Sector Vulnerabilities

• Leverage levels in the nonfinancial sector have increased, especially in the wake of easy financial conditions.
• Financial conditions and leverage are closely linked to economic growth and downside risks.
• Macroprudential policies are crucial in managing these risks, with tightening measures potentially reducing leverage and financial vulnerabilities.

3. Corporate Sector Challenges

• The corporate sector has been significantly impacted by the pandemic, with many firms still overindebted.
• Small and mid-sized firms face high solvency stress, while even some large firms in affected sectors are at risk.
• Bank profitability is expected to remain low, which may discourage the use of capital buffers to support the recovery.

4. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Risks

• The CRE sector has experienced sharp declines in prices and transactions due to the pandemic.
• Structural shifts in demand (e.g., virtual activities and relocation) may lead to permanent price drops if vacancy rates increase.
• CRE price misalignments have worsened since the pandemic, which could pose downside risks to economic growth.

5. Emerging Market Vulnerabilities

• Emerging markets have faced rising borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions.
• The sovereign-bank nexus has intensified, with 60% of post-2020 sovereign debt held by domestic banks.
• Frontier market economies still struggle with market access and external financing needs.

6. Policy Recommendations

• Early action is needed to prevent a legacy of vulnerabilities.
• Selected macroprudential tools should be tightened to address pockets of risk, while avoiding broad financial tightening.
• Debt restructuring and buffer rebuilding are essential for emerging and frontier markets.
• Targeted support for firms facing liquidity or solvency issues should be considered.
• Resolution frameworks need to be improved, especially in jurisdictions with limited fiscal resources.

Key Figures and Data

• Global growth is forecasted at 6% for 2021, driven by $1.9 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus.
• Central bank asset purchases totaling nearly $10 trillion have kept interest rates low and financial conditions accommodative.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 0.5% in August 2020 to 1.25%.
• Emerging market sovereign bond holdings have increased, with 12 major markets included in the analysis.
• Small firms face high liquidity and solvency stress, with 15% average drop in CRE fair values for a 5 percentage point increase in vacancy rates.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of proactive policy measures to address financial vulnerabilities and ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery. It calls for targeted interventions, improved macroprudential tools, and buffer rebuilding in both advanced and emerging economies to prevent a legacy of instability.