2016全球天然气市场安全回顾（英文版）_115页_4mb

Summary of Global Gas Security Review: How Flexible are LNG Markets in Practice?

Core Content

The Global Gas Security Review: How Flexible are LNG Markets in Practice? is a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that examines the flexibility of LNG markets in responding to supply and demand shocks. It highlights the importance of LNG in global energy security, particularly in light of evolving energy systems and the increasing globalisation of gas markets.

Main Objectives

• Assess the physical flexibility of LNG liquefaction infrastructure.
• Evaluate the practical flexibility of LNG markets in terms of volume and destination.
• Analyze the role of LNG in crisis management, such as the response to the Fukushima nuclear accident.
• Investigate the changing dynamics of gas supply and demand, especially in Europe and Asia.
• Provide insights into how market structures and contractual terms influence flexibility.

Key Findings

1. LNG Infrastructure and Flexibility

• LNG export capacity as of October 2016 stands at 445 billion cubic metres (bcm), but about 65 bcm is offline, equivalent to the combined exports of Malaysia and Indonesia.
• Unusable capacity is primarily due to a lack of feedstock gas, and to a lesser extent, technical and security issues.
• LNG liquefaction plants are typically operated as baseload facilities, with high utilisation rates that have remained largely unchanged since 2011.
• The business model of LNG production is inherently rigid, with limited short-term flexibility.
• The new wave of LNG capacity entering the market could lower utilisation rates, but this is considered a cyclical adjustment, not a structural feature.

2. Destination Flexibility

• The arrival of US LNG is expected to increase destination flexibility, as it is sold under open-destination contracts.
• Over half of the incremental LNG production between 2016 and 2021 is expected to come from the United States, significantly enhancing the global gas system's ability to respond to shocks.
• Contractual structures are becoming less rigid, with:
  • Smaller contract volumes.
  • Less reliance on oil indexation.
  • A rise in flexible destination contracts (from ~33% before 2009 to ~60% in 2015).
• Buyers are willing to accept longer contracts when they offer flexibility, as seen in contracts signed in 2014 and 2015 with flexible destinations being on average one-third longer than those with fixed destinations.

3. Flexibility in Supply and Demand

• Flexibility can be sourced from:
  • Uncontracted volumes (e.g., Qatar provides over half of such volumes).
  • Contracted volumes to specific destinations that can be diverted (e.g., Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Equatorial Guinea).
  • Open-destination contracts that allow for dynamic allocation of gas.
• Power system flexibility plays a critical role in gas security, particularly in the switching of fuels (e.g., gas to oil or coal) during crises.

4. Case Study: Japan and the Fukushima Accident

• The Fukushima nuclear accident led to a significant electricity supply shortage, which was mitigated by LNG imports.
• Japan's fuel-switching potential (mainly oil-fired capacity) and demand restraint were key in managing the crisis.
• The decline in gas-fired power generation in Europe helped free up LNG volumes for Japan, highlighting the interconnectedness of global gas markets.

5. Case Study: Europe's Changing Flexibility Landscape

• Europe's declining indigenous gas production and reduced fuel-switching capabilities are limiting its ability to provide flexible LNG volumes.
• LNG and pipeline imports are increasingly reliant on European gas storage to balance seasonal and daily demand fluctuations.
• Storage levels are under economic pressure due to low price spreads between summer and winter, which discourage storage bookings.
• Regulatory and legacy factors have so far limited the impact of this pressure, but as long-term storage contracts expire, market flexibility may be further tested.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of market flexibility in ensuring global gas security. While the current low prices and high LNG supply provide a temporary buffer, long-term resilience depends on the development of more flexible contractual models, diverse supply sources, and robust storage and power system capabilities. The increasing role of US LNG and the evolving structure of European gas markets suggest that the global gas system is becoming more interconnected and responsive, but there are still challenges in accurately forecasting demand and ensuring adequate redundancy in supply infrastructure.

Key Information

• IEA's Mandate: Promote energy security, provide research, and support global collaboration on energy technologies.
• LNG Flexibility: Not only depends on production but also on contractual terms, storage, and power system adaptability.
• Asia's Role: Asia is a key driver of demand for flexible LNG volumes, especially with the growth of China, India, and other emerging markets.
• Policy Implications: Policymakers must consider the changing power mix and storage dynamics in shaping gas security strategies.

Structure Overview

• Executive Summary: Highlights the current state of gas security and the role of LNG.
• Introduction: Sets the context of evolving gas security challenges.
• Chapter 1: Examines LNG export and regasification infrastructure.
• Chapter 2: Analyzes the demand for flexibility and its drivers.
• Chapter 3: Explores the sources of flexibility in supply and demand.
• Chapter 4: Case study on Japan's response to Fukushima.
• Chapter 5: Case study on Europe's gas security challenges.
• Appendices and References: Provide detailed data and supporting analysis.