2025-05-26-Jefferies-SMC（6273）_投资者和管理层普遍乐观_15页_709kb

Jefferies Equity Research:
SMC Corp. (JP: 6273) Equity Research Report as of May 27, 2025.

Key Rating & Target

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target (PT): ¥57,000 per share (+7% from current price ¥53,210)
  • Based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x, below the average during FY3/23-FY3/26.

Post-Meeting Insights & Management's Guidance (HOLD rating perspective)

1. Management's Pessimism: While management provided optimistic FY3/26 (FY3/26) earnings projections (¥215bn sales), Jefferies suspects understatedness likely driven by inventory impairment risks. Their guidance may be more pessimistic than initially perceived.
2. China Focus: China remains crucial (~30% FY3/26 sales), showing monthly order gains until the seasonal April peak (+13% YoY in March orders vs 0% in April). Expect tepid May growth.
3. Order Index (Apr):
   • Positive: China (+143 vs previous year, others generally stronger). Semiconductor and electronics remain the strongest segment.
   • Negative: Japan (-9 points), North America (-13 points), Europe (-5 points). Pressure in automotive, partly linked to semiconductors, in Europe and Japan.

Revised Financial Forecasts (HOLD rationale)

• FY3/26 Sales: Revised to ¥820bn.
• FY3/26 Earnings (Profit): Revised to ¥198bn.
• Key Risk Factor: Pressure from yen appreciation (14.6% YoY), potentially eroding gross margins in a market with weak volume growth.
• Downside Scenario: FY3/27 sales are revised down to ¥850bn compared to the FY3/26 guide. Currency impact remains a major risk.

Opportunity (Semiconductor & Auto)

• SMC benefits significantly from semiconductor demand. Jefferies believes they are well-positioned for this segment's recovery.
• They are a key supplier in pneumatic equipment, crucial for general factory automation across various end-markets.

Analysts' View

• Smaller upside potential than the company itself may seek. The HOLD rating reflects concerns about management's pricing power and potential downstream risks (intensifying competition, semiconductor auto capex volatility, inventory write-down risks).

Valuation Ranges (held viewpoints aside)

• Upside: ¥72,200 (bull-case, assuming significantly higher FY3/26 sales)
• Base Case: ¥57,000 (supports the HOLD rating)
• Downside: ¥42,300 (based on reviewing OP prepaid credit risk)

Key Catalysts for Hold

• Semiconductor device majors' earnings.
• YoY growth in Taiwanese pneumatic equipment competitors' monthly sales.
• Implementation of management's strategy hitting target markets.
• Share repurchases or increased dividend payouts.

Key Risks

• SMC's booking shortfall relative to their optimistic fiscal guidance.
• Booking inventory impairment losses exceeding expectations.
• Poor performance by Taiwanese pneumatic equipment competitors' monthly sales.