20180305-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_37页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the credit implications of various current events across different sectors, including corporate, infrastructure, banks, insurers, exchanges, and sovereigns. It provides an analysis of how trade policies, regulatory changes, and business decisions affect the creditworthiness of companies and countries.

Main Views and Key Information

Proposed US Steel and Aluminum Tariff Credit Effects

• US Steel Producers: The proposed 25% steel tariff and 10% aluminum tariff are credit positive for US steel producers due to increased domestic demand, higher steel prices, and reduced import competition.
• US Industrial Manufacturers: The tariffs are credit negative as they increase input costs, potentially leading to tighter margins, supply-chain disruptions, and reduced competitiveness in export markets.
• European Steel Producers: The US steel tariff is credit negative for European steelmakers due to reduced export opportunities and the risk of steel imports from other countries filling the gap, worsening the European market's already tight supply-demand balance.

Corporate Sector Impacts

• Brunswick Corp.: The spinoff of its fitness business is credit negative, as it reduces diversification and increases exposure to cyclical boating demand.
• German Auto Makers: A court decision allowing cities to ban diesel-powered cars is credit negative, as it may lower residual values, increase costs for emission reduction, and raise potential claims from affected car owners.
• Private Hospital Operators (RGdS and Elsan): France's 0.9% tariff cut is credit negative, increasing leverage and challenging profitability, especially after a decline in patient volume and expected cost inflation.
• Sappi Limited: The acquisition of Cham Paper Group is credit positive, as it diversifies Sappi into growing specialty paper markets and is expected to be funded internally, leading to deleveraging.
• China Railway Group: Winning a light rail construction project in Israel is credit positive, boosting overseas revenue and business traction in the region.

Infrastructure and Banks

• AES: Tender offers reduce holding-company debt and ease the negative impact of US tax reform, a credit positive.
• NIBC: Its IPO is credit positive as it helps fund growth.
• UK Asset-Backed Sukuk: The first UK asset-backed Sukuk is credit positive for Al Rayan Bank and Islamic financial institutions.
• Spain's Supreme Court: Exempting banks from mortgage loan setup taxes is credit positive.
• Greece's Capital Controls: Easier capital controls and improved asset quality are credit positive.
• Norway's Mortgage Regulations: Expanding Oslo-specific mortgage rules is credit positive for banks.
• Ghana's Banks: Moderating foreign-currency loan volume is credit positive.
• China's Banks: Building total loss-absorbing capacity is credit positive.

Insurers and Exchanges

• Hong Kong Health Insurance Scheme: A voluntary health insurance scheme is credit positive for insurers, encouraging medical insurance growth.
• Cboe's Futures Exchange Migration: Migrating onto Bats' technology platform is credit positive for Cboe.

Sovereigns and Sub-sovereigns

• Canada's Budget: Continued fiscal consolidation and strong growth are credit positive.
• Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund: Strong returns are credit positive, despite low oil revenues.
• Germany's Diesel Ban: A credit positive for German cities, as it allows them to take control of environmental policies.

Summary of Credit Impacts

Conclusion

The document highlights the complex and sector-specific credit implications of recent trade policies, regulatory changes, and business decisions. While some developments, such as the US steel tariffs and Sappi's acquisition, are credit positive for certain entities, others like the diesel ban and tariff cuts in France pose credit risks. The overall analysis underscores the importance of understanding how macroeconomic and policy shifts can directly affect the financial health of companies and nations.