2018年度市场趋势预测（英文版）_14页_4mb

2018 Predictions Summary

Core Content Overview

Forrester's 2018 predictions highlight the ongoing challenges and transformations in the business landscape driven by customer experience (CX), digital transformation, AI, and emerging technologies like blockchain and GDPR. These trends are reshaping how companies operate, compete, and engage with customers.

Main Predictions and Key Insights

1. CX Hits a Wall

• Core Content: CX became a central part of business strategy, but most companies saw a plateau or decline in CX quality in 2017 due to lack of operational change.
• Main View: Companies that only focused on low-hanging fruit in CX will see further declines in 2018, resulting in a net loss of one point of growth.
• Key Info: 30% of companies will experience a decline in CX performance. Executives need to intervene and make CX a disruptive force, not just a marketing initiative.

2. The Digital Crisis

• Core Content: Digital transformation is essential to meet customer expectations and operate at market speed, but many CEOs are hesitant to act.
• Main View: 20% of CEOs will fail to act on digital transformation, risking their firms' survival.
• Key Info: Over 60% of executives feel behind in their digital transformation. CEOs must collaborate with CIOs and CMOs to drive change.

3. Talent Widens the Digital Divide

• Core Content: While there is a supply of commodity technical talent, specialized roles are in high demand and difficult to fill.
• Main View: Digital leaders have significantly more talent than laggards, increasing the gap.
• Key Info: 20% of laggard firms will need to pay above market rates to attract talent. Digital incubation centers in talent hotspots are crucial.

4. The Empowered Machine

• Core Content: Intelligent agents are influencing customer behavior and decision-making.
• Main View: These agents will start to have a measurable impact on purchase decisions in 2018.
• Key Info: 10% of purchase decisions will be guided by intelligent agents. This shift is changing the relationship between consumers and brands.

5. The Algorithm Wars

• Core Content: Understanding and influencing platform algorithms is critical for brands.
• Main View: 25% of CMOs will fail to interpret AI-driven platforms, leading to brand obsolescence.
• Key Info: Brands must invest in talent to decode algorithms and maintain differentiation.

6. The Intelligent Agent Cocoon

• Core Content: Consumers are turning to intelligent agents to escape digital noise.
• Main View: This trend will have financial implications for companies.
• Key Info: 1% of the US population, representing $24 billion in spend, will use AI to filter out noise. Brands must adapt to this shift.

7. The Advertising Correction

• Core Content: The advertising market will face a correction as customer preferences change.
• Main View: CMOs will shift focus from traditional advertising to CX, loyalty, and algorithm understanding.
• Key Info: Ad spend will remain flat in 2018, leading to a painful correction in the advertising and adtech industries.

8. The GDPR Challenge

• Core Content: GDPR compliance is a major challenge for firms.
• Main View: Most companies will not fully comply with GDPR by May 2018.
• Key Info: 80% of firms will not comply, with 50% intentionally choosing non-compliance. Consumer advocacy groups will exploit the "right to be forgotten" clause.

9. Open Banking Lays Siege

• Core Content: Open banking is disrupting traditional banking models.
• Main View: More than 50% of banks will fail to leverage open banking, leading to a loss of competitive advantage.
• Key Info: PSD2 is enabling fintech and challenger banks to access customer data, undermining traditional banks.

10. Retail Experience Harmonization

• Core Content: Retailers must integrate physical and digital experiences.
• Main View: 67% of retailers are unprepared to exploit intelligent agents.
• Key Info: Retailers need to create immersive, dynamic experiences and harmonize customer journeys across channels.

11. The AI Reset

• Core Content: AI is transforming how companies interact with customers and employees.
• Main View: 75% of early AI projects will fail due to operational oversights.
• Key Info: AI projects must consider broader operational impacts, not just immediate use cases, to realize long-term value.

12. Blockchain Inches Forward

• Core Content: Blockchain is gaining traction but faces skepticism and overhype.
• Main View: Only 30% of proofs of concept will create a true foundation for blockchain.
• Key Info: Most projects failed due to over-selling, narrow testing, and misuse of the technology.

13. Security for Profit

• Core Content: Security investments can enhance customer experience and drive growth.
• Main View: 10% of firms will successfully integrate security with CX.
• Key Info: Identity management is key to transforming security into a CX enhancement. Marketing can use this capability for personalization.