20171214-三星证券-HMG_xEV_lineup_to_reach_38_models_by_2025_9页_809kb

报告摘要

Sector Update Summary

Core Content

This document is a sector update report from Samsung Securities, focusing on the automotive industry, particularly on xEV (eXtended Electric Vehicle) developments and their implications for key suppliers. It outlines the strategic moves of major automakers, including Hyundai Motor Group (HMG), and provides target prices and growth forecasts for related component suppliers such as Hyundai Mobis, Hanon Systems, S&T Motiv, and Woory Industrial.

Main Points

1. Hyundai Motor Group (HMG) xEV Strategy

HMG announced plans to expand its xEV lineup to 38 models by 2025, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest xEV seller.
The group is expected to increase its BEV lineup from 2 models in 2017 to 14 models by 2025, likely placing it as the third-largest BEV seller globally.
xEV production for HMG/Kia is projected to increase from 23,000 units in 2017 to 100,000 in 2018, and 703,000 units by 2020.
HMG/Kia plans to launch four xEVs annually starting from 2018, including a 2nd-gen FCEV and three long-range EVs.

2. xEV Market Trends

Global xEV demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24%, from 2.35m vehicles in 2016 to 16.27m in 2025.
Toyota remains the largest xEV seller with 1.08m units in 2015, while HMC/Kia is projected to reach 320,000 units in 2018 and 703,000 units by 2020.
Tesla is expected to increase its annual EV capacity to 1m units by 2020, but production delays and cost issues may affect its competitiveness.

3. xEV Parts Suppliers and Growth Forecasts

Company	Target Price	Growth Rate	Key Highlights
Hyundai Mobis	KRW4.7t (2020)	CAGR of 65%	Exclusive supplier of battery packs, BMS, power control, and traction motors for HMC/Kia xEVs.
Hanon Systems	KRW16,500 (2020)	20.4% increase	Exclusive supplier of e-compressors for HMC/Kia; sales are expected to rise significantly.
S&T Motiv	KRW60,000 (2020)	30.9% increase	Expected to see a KRW40b increase in traction-motor sales in 2018 due to increased EV production.
Woory Industrial	KRW37,000 (2020)	5.7% increase	PTC heater sales are expected to grow at CAGR of 35% over 2017–2020. Diversifying customer base reduces reliance on Tesla.

4. Key xEV Launches in 2018

Hyundai Kona EV (April 2018): Single-charge range of 390km.
Kia Niro EV (July 2018): Single-charge range of 390km.
Kia Soul EV (November 2018): Single-charge range of 390km.
Tesla Model 3 (March 2018): Single-charge range of 350km.
Nissan Leaf 2.0 (2018): Single-charge range of 320km.
VW e-golf: Expected to be launched in 2018 with a single-charge range of 300km.

5. Competitive Landscape

Volkswagen aims for 2m–3m EV sales by 2025 and 30 EV models by 2025.
General Motors plans to launch 20 models (EVs and FCEVs) by 2023 and 10 NEVs by 2020.
BMW targets 25% green car sales by 2025 and 25 models (12 EVs, 13 PHEVs/HEVs).
Toyota is leading in solid-state battery production.
Daimler is investing USD1b in the U.S. to boost EV production and launched the EQ sub-brand.

Key Information

HMG is expected to maintain its position as the second-largest xEV seller by 2025, with 38 models in total.
Hyundai Mobis is the top pick among xEV suppliers due to its exclusive supply role and strong growth trajectory.
xEV-related sales are expected to grow significantly across all suppliers, driven by global demand expansion and technological advancements.
Hanon Systems is projected to increase its xEV-related sales to 10% of total sales by 2020.
Woory Industrial is diversifying its customer base to reduce reliance on Tesla.
Global xEV demand is expected to reach 16.27m units by 2025, representing 16% of the total global demand of 100m vehicles.
Tesla's production delays and cost hikes may lead to increased focus on major automakers' platforms and mass production capabilities.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the accelerating shift toward xEVs in the global automotive industry and highlights the growth opportunities for component suppliers like Hyundai Mobis, Hanon Systems, S&T Motiv, and Woory Industrial. HMG's aggressive expansion and strategic focus on EV-only platforms and battery technology are expected to position it as a major player in the xEV market. The target prices and growth projections reflect the positive outlook for these firms, especially in the context of increasing global demand and technological advancements.