20140128-Maybank_KERPL-Recurring_revenue_to_surge_11页_419kb

报告摘要

Company Overview: Robinsons Land Corp (RLC PM) is a real estate company based in the Philippines with a market capitalization of USD 1.8B and a share price of PHP19.80.
Target Price: The target price is set at PHP25.66, implying a potential upside of 29.6%.
Rating: The company is rated as "BUY" with no change in the rating.
Key Divisions: The company operates in real estate, commercial centres, offices, hotels, and residential segments.

Recurring Revenue Growth: The company aims to significantly expand its recurring revenue base in FY9/14 from three divisions: commercial centres, offices, and hotels.
Mall Delay Impact: Due to unusually rainy weather, the opening of three new malls was delayed, which affected revenue growth and resulted in only 5.5% YoY net profit growth in FY9/13, below forecasts.
Residential Sales: Residential sales accounted for 80% of total sales and contributed to the overall revenue growth in FY9/13, with a 29% YoY increase.
Commercial Revenue: The commercial centres division saw a 11% YoY growth in revenue, driven by a 3% price escalation, higher occupancy rates, and same-store sales growth.
Hotel Revenue: Hotel operations grew 9% YoY in FY9/13, with improved EBITDA margins and sustained occupancy rates.

Projected Earnings Growth: Earnings growth is expected to increase from 5.5% in FY9/13 to 27.5% in FY9/14.
New Mall Openings: Seven new malls are scheduled to open in FY9/14, including three in October 2013. These will contribute 7.6% to total mall revenue.
Office Expansion: Two new office buildings are set to open in 2QFY9/14, increasing the company's net leasable area (NLA) and expected to have a significant impact due to high EBITDA margins.
Hotel Expansion: RLC is targeting three Go hotels annually and five Summit hotels by 2016 to boost its hotel business.
Valuation: At the target price of PHP25.66, the company's PER is 18.5x, which is considered attractive compared to peers. Its current PER of 14.4x is well below the sector average of 21.6x.
Financial Metrics:
- EBITDA growth is projected to increase from 10.2% in FY9/13 to 8.8% in FY9/14.
- Net profit is expected to rise from PHP4.47b in FY9/13 to PHP5.70b in FY9/14.
- The company's P/BV ratio is decreasing, indicating a potential valuation discount.
- Net dividend yield is projected to increase from 1.8% in FY9/13 to 3.0% in FY9/16.

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (PHP m)	13,515.1	15,904.5	19,861.5	22,219.4	23,843.2
EBITDA (PHP m)	7,317.7	8,429.2	9,169.8	10,134.6	10,480.5
Core Net Profit (PHP m)	4,238.5	4,470.0	5,700.8	6,672.3	7,159.6
Core EPS (PHP)	1.04	1.09	1.39	1.63	1.75
Core EPS Growth (%)	-10.5	5.5	27.5	17.0	7.3
Net DPS (PHP)	0.36	0.36	0.40	0.52	0.60
Core P/E (x)	19.3	18.3	14.4	12.3	11.4
P/BV (x)	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.4	1.3
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.8	1.8	2.0	2.6	3.0
ROAE (%)	9.9	9.3	11.1	12.0	11.8
ROAA (%)	6.3	6.1	6.8	6.7	6.9
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.5	11.4	11.2	10.1	9.4
Net Debt/Equity (%)	13.2	23.5	39.0	35.7	26.5

Malls: Seven new malls are scheduled to open in FY9/14, with significant contributions from the Antipolo and Las Pinas locations.
Office Buildings: Two new buildings in Ortigas Centre CBD are set to open in 2QFY9/14, increasing NLA by 80k sqm.
Hotels: Three Go hotels and five Summit hotels are expected to open annually, enhancing the hotel segment's revenue and EBITDA.

Company	Earnings Growth (%)	PER (x)	PBR (x)	ROAE (%)
Ayala Land, Inc.	24.1	23.3	3.1	12.3
SM Prime Holdings	9.7	20.0	2.6	14.7
Robinsons Land Corp.	27.5	14.4	1.5	11.1
Sector Ave (excl. RLC)	16.9	21.6	2.9	13.5

RLC is expected to significantly boost its recurring revenue in FY9/14.
The residential segment is expected to sustain growth, while the commercial and hotel segments are anticipated to contribute more significantly.
The company's valuation is considered attractive compared to its peers, with a target price that offers a 29.6% upside.
The expansion plans for malls, offices, and hotels are expected to drive earnings growth and improve financial metrics.

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