战略与国际研究中心-Southeast-Asia-Bulletin-June-2008_7页_345kb

报告摘要

Summary of the SOUTHEAST ASIA BULLETIN

Core Content

The CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative, launched in January 2008, aims to enhance the focus and analysis of Southeast Asian affairs within the U.S. policy community. It facilitates regular roundtables, conferences, studies, and forums to examine regional developments, while also seeking partnerships with other organizations to promote information and outreach on Southeast Asia.

The Southeast Asia Bulletin serves as a monthly publication that provides updates on key regional events and includes short essays from commentators, both official and unofficial.

Indonesia's Foreign Policy Since Reformasi

Indonesia, post-reformasi, has shown a renewed interest in playing a more active role in regional and global affairs. This shift is marked by several key initiatives:

ASEAN Security Community (ASC): Proposed during Megawati Soekarnoputri’s presidency (2003), this initiative seeks to enhance regional security cooperation.
Democracy Promotion: Indonesia has actively advocated for democratic reforms in Southeast Asia, including efforts to push for a more democratic Myanmar and the establishment of an ASEAN human rights body.
Islamic Moderation: Indonesia seeks to position itself as a moderate Islamic voice, promoting interfaith dialogues and engaging in initiatives like the 2006 Islamic Advisory Council with the UK and the 2007 gathering of Shiite and Sunni scholars to address sectarian conflict in Iraq.

Main Changes in Foreign Policy

New Domestic Context: Indonesia’s foreign policy now reflects the democratic process, incorporating public and NGO input, unlike under Suharto’s authoritarian rule.
Projection of Democratic Values: Indonesia, now the third-largest democracy, emphasizes its role in promoting democracy within ASEAN and the broader region.
Islam as a Foreign Policy Asset: While Islam was not a central factor in foreign policy during Suharto, its moderate form has increasingly influenced Indonesia's international image and role.

Domestic Weaknesses Constraining Foreign Policy

Despite these changes, domestic challenges limit the effectiveness of Indonesia's foreign policy aspirations:

Ongoing Nation Building: Indonesia continues to face internal conflicts, communal violence, and separatist movements, undermining its credibility in promoting democracy abroad.
Slow Economic Recovery: Economic growth remains around 5%, with high unemployment and a significant portion of the population still living in poverty. The lack of FDI and infrastructure investment exacerbates these issues.
Confidence Deficit and Regional Entitlement: Indonesia balances its desire to be a regional leader with concerns about external interference, often oscillating between a sense of entitlement and frustration over its inability to achieve its goals.

Elements of Continuity in Indonesia's Foreign Policy

Regional Leadership: Indonesia continues to assert its leadership role in ASEAN, even amid domestic challenges.
Anxiety Over Extraregional Powers: Despite improved relations with China, Indonesia remains wary of external powers influencing regional dynamics.
Focus on East Asia and the West: While Indonesia promotes Islamic moderation, its foreign policy remains centered on East Asia and the U.S., not on Muslim-majority countries.

Key Regional Events (May 2008)

Cyclone Nargis in Burma: Caused massive destruction and loss of life, with the Burmese junta resisting foreign aid access.
ASEAN Emergency Relief Fund: ASEAN, China, Japan, and Korea agreed to establish an $80 billion fund to address potential financial crises.
Jemaah Islamiyah Arrest: Indonesian police arrested a key member of JI, linked to the 2005 Bali bombing.
ASEAN Economic Cooperation: Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia formed an economic cooperation association.
Cobra Gold Military Exercise: Involved multiple countries, including the U.S., and included humanitarian efforts.
ASEAN and Singapore Sovereignty Dispute: The International Court of Justice ruled in favor of Singapore on a territorial issue.
Indonesia's Withdrawal from OPEC: Due to declining oil production and the need for lower oil prices.
U.S. Travel Warning Lifted: After improvements in Indonesia’s security situation.
USAID Relief Efforts in Myanmar: Coordination of aid following Cyclone Nargis.

Major Regional Developments

Burma's Referendum: The junta held a referendum on a new constitution, which was widely seen as lacking legitimacy.
Aung San Suu Kyi's House Arrest Extended: Highlighting the junta's continued suppression of political dissent.
Economic Challenges in Indonesia: Rising food and oil prices led to a significant cut in fuel subsidies, sparking protests and concerns over political stability.

Events to Watch in June 2008

ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team Deployment: To assess the impact of Cyclone Nargis in Burma.
U.S. Defense Secretary Visit to Thailand: Part of ongoing diplomatic and military engagement.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Visit to the Philippines: To discuss regional security.
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement Negotiations: Final round in Hanoi, expected to conclude by August.
World Economic Forum on East Asia: In Kuala Lumpur, focusing on climate change and financial stability.
ASEAN+3 Workshops on Energy Safety and Biofuels: In Bangkok, involving over 300 energy experts.
U.S. Trade Mission to Vietnam: Aimed at boosting U.S.-Vietnam trade relations.

Miscellaneous Facts

Indonesia-China Trade: China is a growing trade partner, but still ranks fourth in Indonesia's export markets.
Indonesia's Natural Gas Exports: It is the world's eighth-largest exporter.
Historical Note: In 1667, the Dutch traded Run Island to the English for Manhattan.

Conclusion

Indonesia's foreign policy has evolved in the post-reformasi era, emphasizing democracy and Islamic moderation. However, persistent domestic challenges continue to shape and limit its international engagement. The region remains dynamic, with ongoing events and initiatives that reflect both change and continuity in Southeast Asian politics and diplomacy.

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