卡内基国际和平基金会-Seeking-Breakthroughs--The-Meandering-US-India-Relationship-Needs-a-Fresh-Impetus_2页_1mb
报告摘要
US-India Defence Relationship Summary
Core Content
The US-India relationship has undergone significant transformation over the past few decades, marked by both cooperation and conflict. While the two nations share democratic values, their geopolitical perspectives have historically diverged, particularly during the Cold War. The end of the bipolar world structure has reduced some of the sources of tension but has not yet led to consistently cooperative ties. The relationship remains characterized by a mix of cooperation and conflict, driven by specific national interests.
Main Points
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Historical Context: For nearly 50 years, the US and India had a complex and often conflictual relationship due to differences in global outlook, the role of the Soviet Union, nuclear policy, and the situation in Pakistan.
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Post-Cold War Shift: The end of the Cold War removed some of the structural causes of conflict, allowing for more cooperative dynamics, especially in economic and strategic areas.
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Bush Administration's Impact: The first two years of the Bush Administration marked a high point in US-India relations. This was due to the President's support for Indian democracy, the potential of India as a counterweight to China, the presence of a proactive American ambassador, and India's alignment with US foreign policy goals.
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Military-to-Military (Mil-Mil) Cooperation: Mil-mil ties have seen significant improvements, including joint exercises, personnel exchanges, and training programs. These efforts aim to enhance interoperability and prepare for future joint operations.
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Limitations of Mil-Mil Cooperation: While mil-mil relations have improved, they are not sufficient to drive a broader transformation in the bilateral relationship. The political and diplomatic ties remain complex and multifaceted.
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Defence Trade Challenges: Despite some purchases like ANTPQ/37 radars and GE-404 jet engines, defence trade has not advanced significantly. The US is hesitant to license high-leverage technologies due to concerns about regional stability, while India is wary of supplier reliability. Additionally, India's procurement process is seen as too slow and bureaucratic, deterring US companies.
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Defence Industrial Collaboration: India has opened its public sector to foreign investment, but American firms have been reluctant to invest due to low equity limits, limited acquisition budgets, and policy restrictions on technology transfer.
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Strategic Partnership Needs: A deeper appreciation of common strategic interests and a willingness to collaborate are essential for advancing the US-India defence relationship. This includes addressing policy restrictions and fostering a more robust partnership at the political level.
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Current Challenges: The momentum for transformation has slowed due to various factors, including US preoccupations with Iraq, upcoming elections, and India's decision not to contribute troops to US operations. The formal acceptance of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) by India is seen as a potential catalyst for renewed cooperation.
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Future Prospects: The US and India face a critical juncture in their relationship. If they fail to address the fundamental questions of mutual strategic interests and partnership, their defence cooperation may atrophy or remain a niche activity. This is particularly important given the shared threats of terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the balance of power in Asia.
Key Information
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Joint Exercises and Exchanges: A long list of joint military exercises and exchanges since 2001 has demonstrated the progress in mil-mil cooperation.
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Defence Procurement: The US has sold some military equipment to India, but major procurement deals remain elusive due to bureaucratic and political hurdles.
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Technology Transfer: The US Department of Commerce's controls on dual-use technologies and the Department of State's restrictions on Munitions List items continue to hinder technology transfer.
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Strategic Partnership: The NSSP, particularly Phase 1, represents a step toward formalizing the strategic partnership, though more is needed to fully realize its potential.
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Common Threats: Both countries must address shared security challenges, including terrorism, WMD proliferation, and the balance of power in Asia, to solidify their defence cooperation.
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Political Will: The success of the US-India defence relationship depends on political determination and a shared vision of strategic interests.
Conclusion
The US-India defence relationship has made notable progress, especially in military-to-military cooperation. However, deeper and more sustained transformation requires addressing the complexities of diplomatic and political ties, as well as overcoming the barriers to defence trade and industrial collaboration. The relationship is at a pivotal moment, with the potential to evolve into a strategic partnership if both sides demonstrate the necessary commitment and resolve.
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