2013年-世界发展银行全球_Joining_Upgrading_and_Being____________Competitive_in_Global_Value_Chains__A_Strategic_Framework_52页_1mb

Summary of "Joining, Upgrading and Being Competitive in Global Value Chains: A Strategic Framework"

Core Content

This working paper explores the evolving role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in international trade and development. It presents a strategic framework to guide countries in joining, maintaining participation, and moving up in GVCs, emphasizing the importance of trade, competitiveness, and development policies in this context. The paper highlights the structural and operational changes in how production is organized globally, and how these changes influence national economic strategies.

Main Viewpoints

• GVCs are central to modern trade and development: GVCs have become a major source of socio-economic upgrading and development opportunities for countries, especially developing ones.
• Trade and FDI are increasingly intra-firm and vertical: The rise of GVCs has led to a shift in trade patterns, where a significant portion of trade is now intra-firm and vertical, involving intermediate goods and services.
• Competitiveness is now a firm-level and GVC-level phenomenon: Traditional country-level competitiveness frameworks are being replaced by more nuanced strategies that consider firm-level capabilities and GVC participation.
• New challenges and risks emerge: GVCs bring volatility, dependency on global markets, and issues like unequal value distribution, private regulations, and environmental concerns.

Key Information

Importance of GVCs

• GVCs involve the global dispersion of production stages, from design to final consumption.
• They are characterized by inter-firm networks and vertical integration, with firms sourcing and selling across borders.
• Over 60% of goods trade is now in intermediate products, and 40% of exports have import content.
• Services also play a crucial role, representing over one-third of the value of manufacturing exports in most countries.

Trade Patterns and Paradigm Shifts

• The "second unbundling" refers to the fragmentation of production across countries, driven by technological progress, lower transport costs, and greater liberalization.
• This has led to a paradigm shift in trade and development policies:
  • From country-based to firm and GVC-based strategies.
  • From industries to tasks and business functions.
  • From static endowments to dynamic flows.
  • From public barriers to private standards and regulations.

Risks and Challenges

• Volatility and exposure: Trade flows in GVCs are more susceptible to economic crises and policy changes, leading to chain disruptions.
• Exclusion of some countries: Not all countries can benefit from GVCs due to lack of infrastructure, skills, or market access.
• Private sector dominance: The private sector now drives trade and investment, creating new challenges for public policy and development.
• Socio-economic risks: Predatory behavior by lead firms can lead to downgrading of local industries, as seen in cases like timber in Gabon and cassava in Thailand.

Strategic Objectives

• Joining GVCs: Countries need to develop specific capacities in certain stages or functions of the value chain.
• Maintaining participation: Requires efficient linkages to global markets and sustained competitiveness.
• Moving up value chains: Involves upgrading to higher value-added activities, which requires technical assistance, capacity building, and policy alignment.

Measuring GVC Participation

Input-Output Data

• Input-output tables are the primary tool for measuring a country's involvement in GVCs.
• Several databases have been developed to support this:
  • World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Covers 40 countries and 35 industries, with time-series data from 1995–2009.
  • OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO): Includes 57 economies, representing 95% of global output, and has been used to develop Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) indicators.
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Uses social accounting matrices to estimate value added contributions.
  • Eora MRIO: Combines primary data sources to create a global multi-region input-output dataset, covering 1990–2010.

Key Indicators

1. Participation Index: Measures a country's involvement in GVCs by:

   • The value of imported inputs in its exports.
   • The percentage of exported goods/services used as inputs in other countries' exports.
   • Smaller countries like Slovak Republic, Belgium, Singapore show high participation (60–80%).
   • Larger countries have lower participation.
   • New Zealand has one of the lowest participation rates (below 40%).

2. Length of GVCs: Indicates the number of stages in the production process.

   • Industries with high fragmentation include TV and communication equipment, motor vehicles, basic metals, electrical machinery, and textiles.
   • Services typically have shorter value chains, though exceptions exist (e.g., transport and storage).

Conclusion

• GVCs have transformed the landscape of international trade and development.
• Policy reform is essential to ensure benefits are maximized and risks are minimized.
• Aid for Trade (AFT) and international cooperation are critical in facilitating trade integration and capacity building.
• Sector-specific policies are necessary due to the heterogeneity of GVC structures and dynamics.