2015-09-08-奥纬咨询-Carrier_Trend_Report_-_July_2015_24页_856kb

报告摘要

Report Overview

The Oliver Wyman Carrier Trend Survey analyzed pricing trends for health insurance and HMO carriers in May 2015, summarizing median trends from participant data covering approximately 101.9 million group members and various individual policies. The survey is confidential, with trends stratified by percentile to show the range of approaches. This report focuses on July 2015 data compared to January 2015.

Key Trends Summary

Group Medical: Median trends decreased for most products; Indemnity had the highest at 8.5%, HMO the lowest at 5.2%. Trend ranges from 5.2% to 8.5% across designs.
Prescription Drug: Median trend increased 0.5% to 11.5% after four consecutive rises, now the highest since July 2010.
Group Dental: Median trends remained stable around 5.0%, unchanged from prior survey.
Group Vision: Indemnity and PPO trends were stable or slightly changed; PPO median converged with indemnity at 4.0%.
Medicare Supplement: Trends slightly increased for both with and without drug coverage; with drug coverage showed higher median trend.
Medicare Advantage: Median trends decreased for products with drug coverage; without coverage and Medicare Part D saw increases, with Part D's trend nearing historical highs.
High Deductible Health Plans (HSA): Most decreased, with individual HSA without Rx increasing; trends ranged from 7.4% to 8.8%.
Individual Medical: Indemnity had highest median at 9.2%; HMO, PPO, and indemnity increased slightly, while POS decreased.
Stop Loss and ASO: Median trend for $50,000 Stop Loss decreased, while ASO remained stable at 3.0%.
Medicaid: Median trend increased to 4.7%; historical fluctuations tied to low response rate.

Historical Experience

From July 2005 to July 2015:

Group medical trends declined over years, continuing downward from January 2015.
Prescription drug trend has risen progressively since 2010.
Dental and vision trends stable for several years.
Medicare Advantage Part D trend significantly increased, approaching peak levels.
Individual medical and stop loss trends relatively stable.

Participating Providers

The survey involved over 80 carriers including major insurers like Aetna, Blue Cross Blue Shield entities, UnitedHealthcare, etc., covering various product lines.

Exposures by Line of Business

Total group health exposures covered over 17 million members, with individual medical around 4 million; prescription drug and dental exposures also significant.