战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-2,-No-44_2页_125kb

Central European Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of political, economic, and diplomatic developments in several Central and Southeast European countries in late 2005. It includes updates on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), as well as Croatia, Romania, and Slovenia. The focus is on international relations, domestic policies, and EU-related issues.

Czech Republic

• EU Border Monitoring: Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda expressed opposition to the EU monitoring the Gaza-Egypt border at Rafah, emphasizing that the peace process should be managed by regional countries.
• Relations with India: President Vaclav Klaus highlighted the importance of expanding Czech-Indian relations, including more direct flights and a simplified visa regime, to enhance cooperation in energy, tourism, and infrastructure.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% in October, the lowest since 2001, due to strong economic growth and government job initiatives. FDI is expected to reach a record high, further reducing unemployment.

Hungary

• Tax Reform: The parliament approved a tax reform that includes reducing the VAT rate to 20% and personal income tax bracket to 36% from 2006, despite EU concerns over the budget deficit.
• Election Law: Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány proposed changes to the election law, including removing the five percent threshold for parliamentary representation, but faced opposition from major parties. A two-thirds majority is needed for approval.

Poland

• Euro Adoption: Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz stated that he does not plan to push for the euro during his term, citing Poland's lack of readiness. Analysts warned that delaying the adoption could harm financial markets.
• Industrial Cooperation: Fiat and Ford began joint production at the Tychy plant, replacing the Fiat 500 and Ford Ka models with small cars. The plant currently produces 300,000 cars annually and employs 9,000 people.
• Military Relations: Defense Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and U.S. Secretary Donald Rumsfeld discussed military cooperation, with Rumsfeld expressing support for integrating Ukraine into Euro-Atlantic structures.

Slovakia

• EU Accession Support: Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda met with Angela Merkel to seek support for maintaining Slovakia's flat 19% tax system within the EU. He argued that the EU's success depends on internal competition.
• Relations with Croatia: Croatian President Stjepan Mesic visited Slovakia, where Gasparovic assured support for Croatia's EU accession preparations. Mesic praised Slovakia as an example for Croatia.

Baltic States Update

Lithuania

• Oil Refinery Sale: Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas announced readiness to begin talks with TNK-BP on the sale of Mazeiku Nafta, the only oil refinery in the Baltic States. TNK-BP is willing to invest up to 225 million euros for modernization.
• EU Integration: President Valdas Adamkus visited Georgia, discussing bilateral relations and signing an investment agreement. Lithuania supports Georgia's democratic reforms and plans to increase its role in the South Caucasus.

Latvia

• Russia Relations: Russian representative Modest Kolerov stated that Russia cannot accept Latvia's stance on citizenship and will not apologize for Soviet occupation.
• Tourism Cooperation: Latvia and Armenia signed an agreement to cooperate in the tourist industry, with potential expansion into Scandinavian markets under the EU's Neighborhood Policy.

Estonia

• EU Engagement: Estonian parliamentarians visited Serbia and Montenegro, emphasizing the importance of EU integration and the value of Estonia's EU experience.
• Kosovo Issue: Prime Minister Andrus Ansip reiterated Estonia's demand for an apology from Russia for the Soviet annexation of Estonia, suggesting potential compensation for the damage caused.

Southeast European Update

Bulgaria

• Foreign Policy: Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev reaffirmed Bulgaria's commitment to NATO and EU peacekeeping missions. He also outlined Bulgaria's goals to join the Schengen Agreement and the Economic and Monetary Union.
• Sofia Elections: Boiko Borisov won the mayoral elections in Sofia with 68.5% of the vote, defeating the Socialist candidate. Voter turnout remained low.
• Kosovo Status: Bulgaria supports negotiations on Kosovo's future status, advocating for a stable and developed region. It urged a compromise between Belgrade and Prishtina.

Croatia

• EU Accession: The European Commission confirmed Croatia's functioning market economy and met political criteria for EU membership. However, cooperation with the ICTY and minority rights remain areas needing improvement.
• Environmental Cooperation: Croatia, Italy, and Slovenia signed an agreement on trilateral cooperation to address pollution in the Adriatic Sea, hoping for future participation from other Balkan countries.

Romania

• Flood Reconstruction: Romania received 49 million euros from the EU for road and railroad reconstruction damaged by floods in July and August. The funds will be used under the ISPA pre-accession program.
• Kosovo Position: Foreign Minister Mihai-Razvan Ungureanu called for a compromise between Belgrade and Prishtina on Kosovo's status, warning that failure to agree could harm Romania and Bulgaria's EU aspirations.

Slovenia

• Cohesion Status: Minister Ivan Zagar proposed dual cohesion status for Slovenia, dividing the country into east and west regions to continue receiving core development aid from the EU.

Key Information

• EU Membership and Reform: Several countries are focusing on EU accession and reform, including tax policies, Schengen and Euro adoption, and cooperation with the EU on regional issues.
• Regional Cooperation: There is a growing emphasis on trilateral and bilateral cooperation among EU member states and candidate countries, especially in environmental and economic matters.
• Russia Relations: Tensions with Russia are evident, particularly in the Baltic States, where issues of citizenship and historical grievances are discussed.
• Economic Development: Economic growth and FDI are seen as key factors in reducing unemployment and improving infrastructure, especially in Central and Southeast Europe.