战略与国际研究中心-Afghan-National-Security-Forces_-Shaping-The-Path-To-Victory_60页_2mb

AFGHAN NATIONAL SECURITY FORCES: SHAPING THE PATH TO VICTORY

Executive Summary

The development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is critical to achieving victory in Afghanistan. Military action alone is insufficient; the Afghan people must have enough security and stability to enable successful governance, development, and the establishment of a civil society and rule of law. NATO/ISAF and US forces cannot win the war on their own and must focus on building a larger, more effective ANSF that can eventually take the lead in security operations.

The ANSF expansion must be a top priority, with immediate action to accelerate current force growth plans and ensure adequate resources, training, and mentorship. The ANSF must be fully resourced and supported not only during combat but also in the transition to a post-conflict force size that the Afghan government can sustain. Funding the ANSF is more cost-effective than maintaining NATO/ISAF forces.

Core Content and Key Points

The Afghan National Army (ANA)

• Current Status: The ANA has already proven its combat effectiveness. It has expanded from 91,000 to 134,000 personnel and from 117 to 179 kandaks. It is acquiring better equipment and increasing the number of Commando kandaks.
• Role: The ANA is currently the primary force for the "hold" mission, as the ANP is not yet capable enough.
• Strategic Decisions:
  • Accelerate Expansion: Increase the ANA to 240,000 by 2014. This will require more funding, training facilities, equipment, and mentors.
  • Address Mentor Shortfall: The ANA needs more Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLTs) and US trainers. A third new brigade combat team may be required to address the deficit.
  • Create Operational Partnership: Embed NATO/ISAF units into each echelon of the ANA to enhance joint operations, intelligence, command and control, and other capabilities.

The Afghan National Police (ANP)

• Current Status: The ANP has an authorized strength of 47,000 and an assigned strength of 51,000. However, it faces significant issues with corruption, political interference, and lack of training.
• Role: The ANP is essential for the "hold" and "build" missions, particularly in population centers. It must be able to provide prompt justice and effective security.
• Strategic Decisions:
  • Reduce Corruption: Corruption and political interference must be addressed through improved leadership, training, and mentorship.
  • Expand and Improve: The ANP should be expanded from 82,000 to 160,000 by 2014. Additional trainers and mentors are needed.
  • Reorganization: Develop elite gendarmeries and paramilitary units to enhance counterinsurgency and hold functions.
  • Integrate Justice Systems: Link ANP development with improvements in formal and informal legal systems to ensure effective justice delivery.

The Afghan Border Police (ABP)

• Current Status: The ABP has an authorized strength of 17,600 and an assigned strength of 12,800.
• Role: Border protection is important, but it is not a top priority for NATO/ISAF. The ABP can help reduce corruption and increase government revenue, but it is unlikely to secure borders effectively in the short term.
• Recommendations: Support the Focused Border Development program and use specific technologies like biometrics and ISR. However, avoid overextending NATO/ISAF resources on border protection.

The Afghan Public Protection Program (AP3)

• Current Status: AP3 is a tribal security program aimed at providing local security for district-sized areas. It is still in development.
• Role: It can complement the ANSF by providing security in areas where the ANP is not yet effective.
• Recommendations: Expand AP3 only where local commanders and officials agree it is viable. Ensure coordination with provincial and district leaders to avoid loyalty issues and tribal conflicts.

Key Recommendations

• Integrated Civil-Military Partnership: NATO/ISAF and the US must ensure that ANSF development includes both military and civil aspects. This includes establishing basic services, encouraging local leadership, and creating a functioning justice system.
• Transparency and Accountability: Aid efforts must be transparent, effective, and focused on real outcomes rather than symbolic gestures.
• Mentorship and Training: Adequate numbers of mentors and trainers are essential for the ANSF to develop and maintain quality. This includes both military and police components.
• Command and Control: NATO/ISAF must improve coordination and unity of command to ensure effective use of ANSF and ISAF forces across the battlespace.
• Political and Legal Reforms: ANP development must be linked to reforms in the Afghan legal system to ensure it can deliver justice and reduce corruption.

Challenges

• Corruption and Power Brokering: These issues severely undermine the effectiveness and legitimacy of the ANP.
• Resource Shortfalls: Both the ANA and ANP face shortages in mentors, equipment, and funding.
• Force Quality vs. Quantity: Improving the quality of the ANSF is as important as increasing its numbers.
• Political Will: National leaders in Washington have historically under-resourced the ANSF, leading to a lack of a coherent strategy.

Conclusion

The ANSF is a critical component of any strategy to achieve victory in Afghanistan. The success of NATO/ISAF and US efforts depends on the development of a strong, capable, and legitimate ANSF. Immediate and sustained investment in training, mentorship, and resources is essential. A true partnership between NATO/ISAF and the ANSF, along with integrated civil-military efforts, is necessary to ensure long-term stability and security in Afghanistan.